Patriots vs. Bills prediction, odds, start time: 2025 Week 5 Sunday Night Football picks by proven model

The Buffalo Bills will aim to go 5-0 on the season when they host the New England Patriots on 'Sunday Night Football' in NFL Week 5. Josh Allen and the Bills are one of two undefeated teams remaining, while the division rival Patriots sit second in the AFC East standings at 2-2. Buffalo defeated the New Orleans Saints 31-19 in Week 4, while Drake Maye and the Patriots upended the Carolina Panthers 42-13. Buffalo has won four straight home games versus New England.

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 49.5, giving it the highest total of Week 5. The Bills are -435 favorites on the money line (risk $435 to win $100), while the Patriots are +337 underdogs (risk $100 to win $337). Before making any Bills vs. Patriots picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 39-20 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Bills vs. Patriots. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football:

Why the Patriots can cover

New England, which is 2-2-0 ATS on the season, covered the spread in both meetings against Buffalo in 2024 including as a 14-point underdog in a 24-21 loss in Week 16. 

The Patriots passing defense has gotten a boost with Christian Gonzalez back on the field, while the rushing defense is only allowing 77.5 yards per game. Maye averaged 11.9 yards per pass and had two touchdowns with no interceptions in Week 4, but New England's chances of covering the spread will greatly improve by Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson having big games against a Bills rushing defense that is allowing over 6 yards per carry and 164.3 yards per game. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is also 2-2-0 ATS on the season. They also went 7-3-0 ATS at home last season and haven't lost at Highmark since the AFC Divisional Playoff matchup with the Chiefs on Jan. 21. 2024. Buffalo has also won four straight home games versus the Patriots.

The Bills offense is averaging 404 total yards and 33.3 points per game. Buffalo's run game has been sneakily good with 163.5 average yards per outing. The air game speaks for itself, while Allen is averaging 8.0 yards per pass with seven touchdowns and just one interception. He has thrown for 2,576 total yards with 19 touchdowns in 13 career games against New England. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

For Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 5, the model is leaning over the total, and also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations in an A-rated pick. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Bills, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time in an A-rated pick? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 39-20 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.