Packers vs. Lions prediction, odds, line, time: 2025 NFL Thanksgiving Day picks by proven model

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions clash in a key NFC North Division matchup on Thanksgiving Day. Green Bay is coming off a 23-6 win over the Minnesota Vikings, while Detroit rallied for a 34-27 triumph over the New York Giants on Sunday. The Packers (7-3-1), who have won two in a row, are second in the NFC North, one-half game behind Chicago. The Lions (7-4), who have won two of their last three, are third in the division, one game behind the Bears. Josh Jacobs (knee) was a limited participant on Monday's practice report.

Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Packers lead the all-time series 107-78-7, including a 27-13 win in the season opener at Green Bay. The Lions are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Packers vs. Lions odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 49 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Packers vs. Lions picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 13 on a 49-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Packers vs. Lions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Packers vs. Lions:

Why the Lions can cover

Quarterback Jared Goff powers the Detroit offense. In 11 starts, he has completed 69.3% of his passes for 2,769 yards and 23 touchdowns with five interceptions and a 108.5 rating. He has thrown at least one touchdown in every game, including multiple touchdowns in seven games. In a 52-21 win over the Chicago Bears on Sept. 14, he completed 23 of 28 passes for 334 yards and five touchdowns.

Leading the Lions' ground attack is Jahmyr Gibbs. The third-year veteran has played in 11 games, carrying 155 times for 951 yards (6.1 average) and 10 touchdowns. In Sunday's overtime win over the Giants, he carried 15 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns, including a 69-yard scoring run in overtime. He also has 48 receptions for 379 yards and three touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Packers can cover

Quarterback Jordan Love is having a solid season. In 11 starts, he has completed 67.7% of his passes for 2,560 yards and 15 touchdowns with just three interceptions and a rating of 102. He has also rushed 36 times for 160 yards (4.4 average), including one explosive run of 25 yards. In a 35-25 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 26, he completed 29 of 37 passes for 360 yards and three touchdowns.

Jacobs is another weapon on offense if he's able to go. In 10 games, he has carried 169 times for 648 yards (3.8 average) and 11 touchdowns. Although he is recovering from a knee bruise, he has been the Packers' heart and soul on offense, converting a team-high 41 first downs. In a 40-40 tie with the Dallas Cowboys on Sept. 28, he carried 22 times for 86 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught four passes for 71 yards. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make Packers vs. Lions picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 51 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Packers vs. Lions, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Lions spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.