Nick Bosa's Hall of Fame chances fade away as season-ending injuries mount

Nick Bosa's season-ending injury isn't just a big blow for the 49ers -- it all but crushes any hope of him reaching the Hall of Fame. (For the record, I hope this motivates Bosa to do the improbable.)

Bosa has lived up to every bit of the hype since the 49ers selected him from Ohio State with the 2019 draft's No. 2 overall pick. The physical freak has terrorized opposing quarterbacks off the edge to the tune of top-five ranks in sacks (64.5), pressures (424) and quarterback hits (168) since 2019. Those figures are despite missing 18 games.

That's how unbelievably talented he is.

He was the 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year before tearing his ACL in Week 2 of 2020, causing him to miss the season's final 14 games. He bounced back with 15.5 sacks in 2021 before leading the NFL with 18.5 sacks in 2022 en route to winning Defensive Player of the Year.

Bosa also produced back-to-back Pro Bowl campaigns in his past two seasons, combining for 19.5 sacks. The only pass rusher with a higher pressure rate than Bosa since 2019 is Micah Parsons. So, when titans clash at the line of scrimmage, Bosa beats his man more often than almost anyone.

His game-sealing sack in Week 1 at the Seahawks exemplified what makes him so great -- brute force and incredible bend to shove the right tackle into Sam Darnold dislodged the ball.

He's consistently been among the NFL's top five or 10 best defensive players in his prime, which is the type of production needed to get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He's right up there with Myles Garrett, Parsons, T.J. Watt and Maxx Crosby as the most dominant players off the edge in the past five-plus years.

Bosa is currently ninth among players since 1982 (when sacks became official statistics) in sacks per game. He is tied with J.J. Watt and behind a few Hall of Famers in Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor and DeMarcus Ware.

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Most sacks per game in NFL history (since sacks officially tracked in 1982)

Bosa was on a Hall of Fame trajectory

There's no question, on a per-game basis, that Bosa has a Hall of Fame resume. His profile lines up somewhat favorably if you look at the first seven seasons of pass rushers enshrined in Canton, Ohio, in the past 30 years. This includes unofficial sack totals prior to 1982 that have been tracked by Pro Football Reference.

Average career of Hall of Fame pass rushers in first seven seasons (inducted in past 30 years)

He's in the ballpark of the same production of recent inductees such as Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Jason Taylor and Michael Strahan.

However, Bosa is starting to fall behind in sack totals as he misses critical games in his prime this year.

How Bosa compares to recent Hall of Fame pass rushers in first seven seasons

Here's the bar for a Hall of Fame pass rusher

You would think that it's only going to get harder for Bosa to stay on the field and add to those numbers. He's missed 32 games in his first seven seasons, including 2025's final 14.

He's torn his ACL three times now, dating back to high school. He also missed three games last season with hip and oblique injuries.

Therein lies the problem. Bosa has had a strong start to his career -- perhaps a Hall of Fame-caliber one, if you look at average Hall of Fame pass rushers through seven seasons.

But that group also had long, productive careers into their 30s. They averaged nearly 200 games and 133 sacks in their careers. Right now, it's hard to imagine Bosa accumulating those kinds of numbers. He's not even halfway to either total.

Average career of Hall of Fame pass rushers (inducted in past 30 years)

Here's the numbers that he really needs to hit. There are 14 retired players in NFL history with at least seven Pro Bowl selections and 120 sacks. Only one, Terrell Suggs, is not in the Hall of Fame, and he's entering his second year of eligibility in 2026.

As injuries catch up to Joey Bosa, Nick's older brother will be a case study for reaching these numbers. Joey had 58 sacks in 79 games in his first six seasons. He has 15 sacks in 31 games over three-plus seasons since, and he's averaged fewer than 10 games played in the previous three years combined. If Nick's production free falls anything like that, he's going to have no shot at the Hall of Fame -- similar to his brother. Their production through seven seasons is nearly identical, too.

Joey Bosa vs. Nick Bosa in first seven seasons

Losing two prime seasons truly derails Bosa's chances

Ultimately, it's tough for a player to lose two seasons in his prime and make the Hall of Fame. Bosa missed 15 games in 2020 and will miss 14 this year.

That could be 20 sacks or more and two Pro Bowl selections off his career total. That's the margin between a great player, like the ones below, and Hall of Famers.

It's rare for a player to miss a lot of time in his prime and still recover for an all-time-great career.

Gale Sayers is the only Hall of Famer in the Super Bowl era to have multiple seasons where he played between one and four games in his 20s. Sayers was also one of the most dynamic playmakers in NFL history and among the Hall of Fame's youngest inductees ever.

Other players have rebounded from late starts to their careers after playing in other leagues to make the Hall of Fame, but it's also rare (Jim Kelly, Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, Sam Mills, etc.) and mostly involves quarterbacks.

Bosa is only averaging 12.1 games per season in his career through 2025. Again, that's too much of a player's prime missed when the bar is already high for a pass rusher to reach Canton.

Only six players to debut since 1970 have made the Hall of Fame while averaging 12 or fewer games per season in their 20s: Steve Young, Warner, Ken Stabler, Dan Fouts, Terrell Davis and John Riggins. Everyone on that list besides Fouts either won a Super Bowl MVP or an NFL MVP. Four of them were quarterbacks. Davis had a 2,000-yard season rushing, and Riggins had the fourth-most rushing yards in a player's 30s in NFL history.

It's unlikely for Bosa to rebound from these injuries and get better as time goes on either. Of the past 30 years' 22 Hall of Fame pass rushers, only four averaged more sacks per game in their eighth season or later (compared with their first seven seasons). Those four are Strahan, Kevin Greene, Chris Doleman and Carl Eller. They didn't have to overcome the injuries issues that Bosa must.

You might also be wondering if he has a strong enough prime to warrant Hall of Fame consideration by itself. That wouldn't be the case. The recent Hall of Famers to retire early all crushed Bosa when it came to Pro Bowl selections and All-Pro first-team selections. Bosa has been one of the league's best defenders, but these players were arguably the best at their position for almost a decade.

Recent Hall of Famers who retired early

Bosa has two paths to getting Hall of Fame career back on track

So, what exactly is it going to take for Bosa to reverse course and make a run at Canton? Well, as mentioned above, the average Hall of Fame pass rusher inducted in the past 30 years averaged 133 sacks and seven Pro Bowls. Fourteen retired players have at least seven Pro Bowls and 120 sacks or more, and only Suggs isn't in the Hall of Fame yet (and he's only been eligible once so far).

Let's simplify it to two paths for Bosa to reach that production:

1. He can replicate his current production for another seven seasons. He's averaged 0.76 sacks per game in seven seasons already. So, if he doubles his career production up to this point and adds a couple of Pro Bowls, he'll be at the threshold of seven Pro Bowls and 130 sacks or more. It's rare for Hall of Fame pass rushers to match their production as they age. It'll be even harder for Bosa with his injury history. This path is pretty much out.
2. The other path is that he plays for about another decade and his sack production declines to a half sack per game. Assuming he continues to play a dozen games a season that would get him to 120 sacks or more. Sprinkle in two Pro Bowls and he's right there. The problem is that a dozen games per season for a decade is also unlikely for Bosa at this rate.

Unfortunately for Bosa, his potential Hall of Fame career has been likely been derailed by two season-ending ACL tears in his prime. History shows that it'll be tough for him to overcome it to make a run at a gold jacket while his contemporaries like Parsons, Garrett, T.J. Watt and Crosby are better positioned to distance themselves from him.