NFL Week 6 betting: Expert breaks down underdog betting strategy, including Browns vs. Steelers

We've seen some notable performances from underdogs in the early stages of the 2025 NFL season, including Thursday Night Football this week when the New York Giants upset the Philadelphia Eagles. For Week 6, SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has identified three underdogs that fall into a specific criteria in regards to the total. If you're looking to place NFL bets this week, make sure to see what Hochman has to say about these three games. 

Week 6 underdogs in games with totals <47

• Win Rate: 62.0% (75-46-3)

• Time Frame: Since 2005

• Criteria: Underdogs in games with a total less than 47

• Edge: Points are at a premium in lower total games

Why this works

Week 6 usually has teams still trying to find their rhythm, primarily due to injuries. Lines based on totals might not accurately reflect how strong a favorite is and vice versa. Savvy bettors often take advantage of cases where public betting drives spreads too high on low-total games, expecting a conservative pace to limit any potential blowouts. Oddsmakers believe that defenses will be crucial in games that total 46 points or fewer. These spots can give underdogs a stronger chance to stay close to the point spread. When offenses struggle to generate rhythm or big chunks, the favorites' scoring edge shrinks, leveling the field and giving underdogs a greater chance to stay within the spread.

Week 6 qualifiers (confidence level 1-5)

Tennessee Titans +6 at Las Vegas Raiders | Confidence: 5

Tennessee snapped its season-opening skid with a 22–21 comeback win in Week 5, rallying from an 18-point deficit against Arizona. Rookie QB Cam Ward engineered the late surge, showcasing poise under pressure and an improving rapport with his playmakers. Entering Week 6, the Titans are 2-3 ATS and will look to ride their momentum into Sin City. Las Vegas enters 1-4 after a 40-6 loss to the Colts, its fourth straight defeat. The offense has been hamstrung by the absence of tight end Brock Bowers, limiting Geno Smith's weapons in the red zone. Bowers is not expected to return until at least Week 7. The Raiders are relying on rookie RB Ashton Jeanty to carry the offense, which is not sustainable.

The Titans should be able to move the ball on this Raiders' stop unit. The Raiders' defense has generated pressure on only 32.0% of opponent dropbacks when blitzing, placing them in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate. Also, on non-blitz dropbacks, the Raiders generate pressure on just 21.2% of opponent pass attempts, ranking among the league's lowest through Week 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans win this game outright, so let's take those points.

Cleveland Browns +5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers | Confidence: 4

The Cleveland Browns generate pressure on 36.8% of non-blitz dropbacks, ranking them among the top three teams in the league. In contrast, the Pittsburgh Steelers achieve pressure on 26.2% of non-blitz dropbacks, placing them sixth overall in pressure rate. However, they rely heavily on blitzing, which accounts for 39.3% of their defensive plays. This is where a mobile QB can torch the Steelers' defense just like Justin Fields did in Week 1.

Although Cleveland's defense ranks second in DVOA, its offense has struggled, averaging 14.6 points per game, ranking dead last. Take those stats with a grain of salt, as Joe Flacco was the QB for all but one game. Pittsburgh's offense, led by Aaron Rodgers, is efficient, generating 7.3 yards per attempt with a 68.5% completion rate. At the same time, the Steelers' defense ranks 21st in points allowed (24.5) but is second in sacks (3.5 per game) and turnovers forced. Rogers' QBR is just 44.3, which ranks 25th while playing the league's 18th toughest schedule. Conversely, the Browns have played the ninth toughest schedule so far.

Would you believe the Browns are ranked 20th in net yards per play (-0.1) while the Steelers are ranked 26th (-0.8)? In AFC North matchups, betting on the underdog of 3.5 or more points has been the sharp play. Mike Tomlin has shown a stronger performance against the spread when his team receives points. His career record against the spread as a favorite (all spreads) is 97-106-3 (47.8%), while his career ATS record as an underdog (all spreads) stands at 66-39-4 (62.4%). Take the points in this division game.

Miami Dolphins +6 vs. Chargers | Confidence: 3

I was very disappointed with the Chargers' performance against a Commanders team that was playing its third road game in four weeks. I did not take into account all the injuries on the Chargers' offensive line, and it definitely caught up with them. This is a challenging spot, traveling across three time zones with a 10 a.m. internal clock start time in the heat and humidity.

LA has lost its last two games by a combined 44-20, raising questions about momentum and confidence. Concurrently, RB Omarion Hampton is now on injured reserve with an ankle injury, undermining their ground game and limiting play-action effectiveness. Miami converts 77% of trips inside the 20 into touchdowns, second-best in the NFL, compared to the Chargers' 38%, among the league's five worst. That 39-point red zone differential per 100 trips translates to sustained scoring drives when Miami reaches the opponent's 20-yard line, neutralizing Los Angeles's defensive advantage.

The market is overvaluing the Chargers' defensive advantage while underweighting Miami's red zone dominance and home-field factors. While L.A. has a significant defensive edge, the combination of situational factors, red zone efficiency and historical performance in Miami suggests a much closer game than the current spread indicates. 

Since 1982, the Los Angeles Chargers have a record of 1-7 straight up at Miami, and often struggle in outdoor road games played on a grass surface. I set the line at LA -4.5, so let's take the six points.