NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football betting guide: Best bets for Chiefs vs. Jaguars

We've been waiting all NFL season for some chaos and it finally reared its head in Week 5, with a pile of crazy upsets and a lot of ugly teams finding ways to win. We probably should have seen it coming, as the Chiefs vs. Jaguars Monday Night Football clash takes place in DUUUVAL.

If you drive down past that Georgia border and into the Jaguars territory, things are bound to get a little hairy. (I can say this, my family is from there.) Will that translate into our NFL betting? I certainly think so.

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Best bets for Monday Night Football

Jaguars +3.5 

It was always going to be the Jags with this pick and I like it even more after seeing how the week played out, with underdogs rearing their heads in a big way. 

I think Jacksonville might be kind of good! The general public isn't interested in backing the Jags -- they've burned bettors before with that ridiculous non-cover against Cincinnati in Week 2, but the defense is secretly stout and the offense can get cooking with the talent on hand. Travis Etienne has carried this team so far in 2025, but it's about time for a Brian Thomas Jr. game this season. Trevor Lawrence needs a standout primetime performance. I'm not sure a blowup game for the former Clemson star is coming against a dangerous Chiefs defense, but I could see him slicing and dicing a little bit in front of the home crowd. Three and a hook is just too many points being given to a quality, capable Jaguars roster against a Chiefs team that is starting to maybe find its groove again and just saw the division reopen but doesn't really like to blow teams out.   

Monday Night Football player props

Patrick Mahomes Under 22.5 rushing yards

Mahomes has been using his legs all season long... right? That's the narrative anyway, after the first two weeks when the former MVP was running like crazy. But over the last two weeks as the Chiefs passing offense has settled in a bit, Mahomes has rushed much less often. In the two Chiefs wins, he's got nine carries for just seven total yards after running 13 times for 123 yards (and two touchdowns) in the first two weeks of the season. Now, maybe part of that is game script, but I think a lot has to do with the weapons he now has available and the offensive line settling in to a large degree. We can backdoor this with some kneeldowns too if Mahomes is flirting with the number and then eases back below the total. 

Brenton Strange Over 3.5 receptions

Lawrence's safety blanket should get peppered with more than a few targets underneath against a Chiefs defense that isn't going to let you beat them deep if they can help it. I'd expect several receptions early for Strange, who serves as a short-yardage specialist for Lawrence. The Jags might come out passing early, trying to set up the run later and keep the Chiefs on their toes. If they do, Lawrence will have ample time to move through his progressions and find Strange underneath to help move the chains. I think this looks good early and then we just have to pick up one or two more catches in the second half at most.

Anytime touchdown scorer picks

Bhayshul Tuten 

I'm dabbling in the backup running back market here because the Jags have used Tuten a decent bit in goal to go situations and aren't afraid to dial up a screen pass down in the red zone -- and the price is juicy. Tuten's incredibly talented and if he had pass protection down he might have battled sooner for the starting job here. As it stands, Etienne is the lead back and deservedly so, as he's having a monster season and finally doing what so many thought he could when he was drafted. But Tuten's price is juicy enough to take a nibble on a player who could absolutely get carries in a hot hand situation.

Tyquan Thornton

This is a great price for Thornton here, much higher than the rest of the market and we're going to take a stab. Like I said, the Jacksonville defense is good and Thornton isn't some elite receiver, but he's been getting tons of designed shot plays for the Chiefs. Even with Xavier Worthy back, I think they'll continue to utilize Thornton in a way that accentuates his skillset. If I'm getting nearly 4-1 on him finding the end zone, I'm extremely intrigued.