NFL Week 4 picks: NFC South teams among best bets against the spread

Home underdogs heading into their bye week have been a reliable bet, posting a 32-17-2 record against the spread (ATS) since 2015, which translates to a winning percentage of 65.3%. These teams often play with added urgency, knowing they have extra time to regroup after the game. Many head coaches motivate their players by offering an extra day off if they win, and this added incentive is often overlooked in the betting line. 

There is one such case for this in Week 4, as well as a couple other teams I think you should consider backing.

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Here's a look at my Week 4 ATS picks and how confident I am on a 1-5 scale. And click here to check out another notable NFL betting strategy at SportsLine.

Week 4 ATS picks

Falcons +2.5

Confidence: 4

Atlanta's most significant data point this week is that they are returning home following an ugly shutout loss. The Falcons were blanked 30-0 by the Carolina Panthers in Week 3, marking their first shutout since 2021 and their most lopsided defeat since 2015. Historically, teams that face such embarrassing losses tend to respond with better focus and effort the following week. Atlanta was playing their first game outdoors, which has always been a tough spot for the team. 

The Washington Commanders face significant uncertainty at the quarterback position. Jayden Daniels suffered a knee sprain against Green Bay in Week 2 and was ruled out for Week 3. While there's optimism about his Week 4 return, his status remains up in the air. The Commanders are dealing with multiple key injuries beyond Daniels. Terry McLaurin left Week 3 with a quad injury, while Austin Ekeler (Achilles) and Noah Brown (groin) remain out. Keep an eye on Daniels' status. Once his status is official, the line could move 3 to 4 points in either direction.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Confidence: 4

Philadelphia enters Week 4 battle-worn after opening against Dallas, Kansas City, and the Rams, and now faces the prospect of playing in the oppressive Florida heat. In their dramatic victory during Week 3, the Eagles were out-gained 356 yards to 288, yet they still managed to cover the spread. Philadelphia has been out-gained in every game this season while committing just one turnover. 

All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson is questionable after leaving Week 3 with a stinger, which could lead to protection breakdowns. Additionally, cornerback Adoree' Jackson's doubtful status may undermine the secondary's performance against Baker Mayfield and the passing game. The Eagles have a net yards differential of -0.9, while the Buccaneers' differential stands at 0.0. Philadelphia has played a more demanding schedule (No. 6 vs. No. 24), but this has been a good spot to back the home underdog.

Rams -3.5

Confidence: 4

Led by QB Daniel Jones, the Indianapolis Colts rank second in points per game (34.3) and first in yards per play (6.6). Their rushing attack features a committee approach, with Zack Moss posting 4.4 yards per carry. Indianapolis has a top 8 rush defense (94 YPG allowed) and an opportunistic secondary that has generated six takeaways through three weeks. CB Kenny Moore II (calf) is doubtful, and his absence will be felt against the Rams -- he's one of the better nickelbacks. 

Matthew Stafford has thrown for 739 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. His chemistry with Puka Nacua keeps improving, as the dynamic wideout leads the league in receptions (29) and receiving yards (333). Both teams own a +1.6 net yard per play differential; however, the Rams have played a much tougher schedule (No. 15 vs. No. 32). You can wait for this line to move down from 3.5 because the existential risk is minimal. We want the line to move to 3; if it goes to 4, it's not a big deal. I like this spot for teams returning home after losing a game but winning the stats.