NFL Week 2 picks: Seahawks, Bears among underdogs worth backing

Teams that find themselves 0-1 against the spread as they enter Week 2 have shown remarkable value when positioned as underdogs. Since 2014, this NFL betting strategy has posted an impressive record of 26 wins, 11 losses, and two pushes ATS, translating to a robust winning percentage of 70.3%. My theory on the system's profitability is as follows: when two teams fail to cover their spreads in Week 1 and are matched against each other, the underdog often becomes undervalued by the betting public. This presents a unique opportunity for savvy bettors to exploit potentially inflated odds.

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Here's a look at this season's Week 2 ATS underdogs coming off losses in Week 1, and how confident I am on a 1-5 scale in their ability to keep this NFL betting trend going. And click here to check out another notable NFL betting strategy at SportsLine.

Week 2 ATS underdogs coming off spread losses

Seattle Seahawks +3

Confidence: 5

The 3-point spread appears inflated based on Pittsburgh's home-field reputation rather than current team quality. Seattle's new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, previously worked with Sam Darnold in San Francisco, creating a familiarity that should expedite the offensive development process with each game. Seattle qualifies for an additional system (see below), making the Seahawks a strong selection.

Chicago Bears +6

Confidence: 4

Detroit's offensive performance in Week 1 was historically poor, scoring 13 points in a 27-13 loss to Green Bay. It was the first time since Week 7 of 2023 that the Lions didn't score a touchdown in the first three quarters. The offensive line, with new guards Christian Mahogany and rookie Tate Ratledge, struggled under new coordinator John Morton. Despite missing three key defensive starters -- cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, plus linebacker T.J. Edwards -- the Bears' defense performed admirably for three quarters against Minnesota. Despite a fourth-quarter collapse, the Bears showed they can compete with quality teams. Backing them seems like the right side, especially with their new head coach facing his former team and the added motivation of Lions coach Dan Campbell guaranteeing a win against Chicago. Keep an eye on the Bears' injury report. The return of their defensive players would be advantageous.

Atlanta Falcons +5

Confidence: 4

Michael Penix Jr. is trending upward after an impressive debut. Despite the 23-20 loss to Tampa Bay, Penix Jr. completed 27 of 42 passes for 298 yards and two touchdowns while showing remarkable poise in clutch moments. The Falcons' defense showed encouraging signs in Week 1, allowing Tampa Bay just one red zone trip. Minnesota's offense, meanwhile, struggled significantly in the first three quarters against Chicago before J.J. McCarthy's fourth-quarter rally. Minnesota may be due for a letdown after a dramatic comeback victory, where it scored 21 fourth-quarter points to overcome an 11-point deficit. The emotional high of that win and the short week preparation could set up the perfect storm for Atlanta to keep this game competitive and cover the 5-point spread.

New England Patriots +2

Confidence: 2

The Patriots' defense looks primed to exploit Miami's struggling offense, which managed just eight points and 226 total yards while coughing up two turnovers in a 33–8 loss to Indianapolis. New England's front seven generated pressure on just under 30% of dropbacks in Week 1, which can be problematic for the Dolphins' shaky offensive line. Miami does have the benefit of playing at home, where teams from the North often struggle in the heat and humidity of South Florida.

Kansas City Chiefs +1

Confidence: 1

Patrick Mahomes shines as an underdog, posting an impressive record of 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 against the spread when not favored. However, there is some concern regarding the Chiefs, as their receiving corps is currently banged up. The Chiefs have a sense of Super Bowl revenge and have circled this game on their calendar since the offseason. The Eagles will not be defeated easily, entering with 10 days to prepare after their Thursday night game. Get the popcorn ready because this will be a fascinating game to watch.