NFL Week 15 Monday Night Football betting guide: Best bets, props, prediction for Dolphins vs. Steelers

Week 15 featured some real "Thanos got the Soul Stone" vibes -- we got some thrilling football, but what did it cost? Everything. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL shortly before the Chiefs were officially eliminated from the postseason for the first time since 2014. The Packers also lost star pass rusher Micah Parsons to an ACL tear as well, a brutal blow to their Super Bowl hopes, their loss at Denver notwithstanding. 

The Ravens finally looked healthier and more Ravens-y, though, which is a problem for the AFC. That puts some serious game pressure on the Steelers for this Monday Night Football matchup, because they have to keep pace with Baltimore if they want to hold on and win the division (Baltimore is currently a -125 favorite at DraftKings).

This MNF matchup profiles as low-scoring, so be careful with loading up on Overs and touchdowns ... but I've got some for you anyway. 

Best bets for Monday Night Football

Steelers (-3) vs. Dolphins

Monday brings us a tough game to pick. I've waffled a little bit back and forth, primarily because the Steelers just are not the same team without T.J. Watt on the field to cause havoc.

But the Dolphins, who have been playing really well down the stretch and likely managed to save Mike McDaniel's job in the process, are walking into hostile territory here and aren't exactly getting the Fin-friendliest weather either. It was below 10 degrees in Pittsburgh on Monday morning and the high at the stadium should be around 16 degrees. That's hairy for a team used to playing near South Beach.

While the Dolphins' dominant victory over the Bills a month ago was very impressive, the rest of their four-game win streak has come against Marcus Mariota overseas (in a game they should have lost several times), Tyler Shough and Brady Cook. 

Aaron Rodgers should be able to give this Dolphins defense more than it can handle. Mike Tomlin's record on Monday nights is just a thing too: he's 21-3 all time and the Steelers have a 22-game winning streak at home on Monday nights. That's absurd. 

Watt's absence is concerning for sure, but we're going to ride the home team here. 

Monday Night Football player props

Kenneth Gainwell Over 3.5 receptions

The Steelers don't care about having a workhorse because they love Gainwell's prowess in the receiving game. He has an absurd 24 targets out of the backfield in his last four games, meaning Aaron Rodgers is looking his way a lot and Arthur Smith is dialing up a ton of plays to use him in the short-yardage areas. 

Gainwell's converted those looks into 21 receptions in that span, and I'd expect more of that sort of usage to alleviate the pressure on Rodgers in this matchup, whether it's dump-offs or screens early on. 

If Pittsburgh gets into a negative gamescript at all, Gainwell should soar past this number. 

Chris Boswell Over 7.5 kicking points

We've got a cold primetime game with very little wind in a spot where most people struggle to kick -- sign me up for some Chris Boswell field goals! 

The Pittsburgh kicker has been really good this year, converting better than 90% of all his field goals and missing just a single extra point. 

I'm thinking we probably get here with a pair of shorter field goals and an extra point. It might be a little sweaty if the Steelers offense is humming in the red zone, but with a very low spread, massive playoff implications and a low total, I'd expect Mike Tomlin to gamble a lot less and trust Boswell.    

Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 receptions

This is a bit of a juicy number, but we're OK riding with it given Waddle's importance to this offense. He's got 36 targets in the last five games and I think the Dolphins will be forced to pass, given that Tua Tagovailoa's pass attempt number is a hefty 27.5.

Waddle should see plenty of short-yardage looks to try to supplement the running game, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he had a couple of early targets on a scripted drive to pile up some cheap receptions. 

Anytime touchdown picks

De'Von Achane anytime TD

Sometimes the most obvious plays are perfectly fine plays, and Achane absolutely qualifies as one with a price of just -130. 

He's the motor for the Dolphins offense, and while Ollie Gordon will vulture the occasional short-yardage or goal-line touchdown, Achane is going to see the lion's share of the high-value touches. 

McDaniel loves to use him in passing stuff around the goal line and in the red zone, so I feel very comfortable laying the juice on this one.

D.K. Metcalf anytime TD

Over the last month, the Dolphins defense has played against Josh Allen and some more, ahem, questionable quarterbacks. But Allen, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Shough and Brady Cook still managed to produce touchdowns to their "top" wideouts, with Keon Coleman, Deebo Samuel and Chris Olave all finding the end zone against the Miami defense. 

Metcalf's at home in primetime with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball and getting a reasonably decent plus money number here.