NFL Week 13 betting: Expert breaks down strategy for backing underdogs in projected low-scoring games

Week 13 of the NFL season is an intriguing one, especially with games spread out thanks to four contests across Thursday and Friday. NFL underdogs are always worth keeping an eye on, and NFL betting expert Jeff Hochman has identified an underdog betting trend for Week 13 which involves games with low totals, or the over/under. Here, Hochman breaks down the criteria for this trend while sharing which games qualify this week. 

NFL underdogs with low totals (over/under 42 or less)

• Win Rate: 206-151-10 ATS (57.7%)
• Sample Size: Since 2018
• Criteria: Underdogs of 6.5 or more points with a total of 42 or less
• Edge: Weeks 10 to 15

Why does this work?

My job involves researching the best NFL systems that have a proven track record of generating profits. I focus on systems with a win rate of at least 60%. There were no such systems this week but I do like the system that we used last week, so let's run it back.

When the total is 42 points or lower, the betting market expects a defensive battle or limitations in offensive performance. However, sportsbooks often do not adjust point spreads to reflect this lower scoring expectation. A larger point spread in a game with a total of 42 points or less represents a significantly greater percentage of the expected final score compared to a 6.5-point spread in a game with a total of 50 points. The betting market prices in the favorite's superiority as if normal scoring will occur, but the low total constrains how many points the superior team can actually generate. This has always been one of the sharpest NFL betting systems for underdogs, especially as the season progresses.

Week 13 qualifiers

Tennessee Titans +6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | Confidence: 5 out of 5  

The most compelling indicator comes from the Titans' recent ATS cover streak of three consecutive games. While Tennessee has lost its last six games, the team has been competitive and cashing spreads consistently. In their previous three losses, the Titans have lost by a combined 16 points, with each game remaining within a single possession. Last week, the Titans fell to the Seattle Seahawks 30-24 despite being 20-point underdogs at one point, showcasing resilience and improved execution under interim head coach Mike McCoy.

Jacksonville has been winning with smoke and mirrors, sporting a +17 point differential and -0.4 net yards per play. The Jaguars have won three of their last four games, but two of those victories went into overtime. The Titans have appeared more competent since Brian Callahan's firing, which has coincided with Cam Ward's improvement from getting more reps.

This matchup exemplifies a classic betting trap. It features a winning team facing an inferior opponent, and the spread seems too easy. The Titans lost both meetings against the Jags last season by one possession with a much weaker QB under center. Tennessee has not won a home game and will be motivated to secure a victory for its dedicated fans. This will be the Jaguars' fourth road game in five weeks and their first outdoor road game in over two months. That's an advantage for Tennessee that isn't reflected in the betting line. My model has Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite. Grab the 6.5 and sprinkle some money line action.

Las Vegas Raiders +10 at Los Angeles Chargers | Confidence: 3 out of 5

The most significant advantage for Las Vegas right now is the Chargers' struggling offensive line. They've really been struck with injuries, losing both starting tackles for the season. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are out, which means the backups have to step up and fill those big shoes. That could definitely play into the Raiders' hands. Maxx Crosby and company will face inexperienced offensive linemen rather than elite protection. I also like the fact that the Raiders fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, adding uncertainty about the type of game plan they will implement in this game.

The Week 2 meeting between these teams, won 20-9 by L.A., showed Crosby struggling with only one pressure and a 10% win rate against established competition. However, the current matchup eliminates that elite tackle challenge. Consistent pressure from Crosby and the defensive front could force Justin Herbert into quicker, potentially errant decisions -- a significant challenge even for elite quarterbacks over the course of a full game. Los Angeles has allowed an average of 3.4 sacks per game, which ranks them 27th in the league. They have also played the 24th easiest schedule so far this season.

Despite playing at SoFi Stadium, Raiders fans have historically filled the opposing venue, creating a near-home-field advantage for Las Vegas. While the Chargers are coming off a bye, this line seems super inflated, so let's grab the double digits. My model gives the Chargers an 8-point advantage.