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Week 12 concludes with a Monday Night Football game that features a heavily favored NFC West playoff contender against a slightly overrated team in the mix for the NFC South championship. Hopefully we get better NFL action on Monday than we did on Sunday night. I think we should-- the 49ers aren't as good as the Rams. And while the Panthers aren't as good as the Buccaneers at full strength, they do profile nicely for a team that can quickly get involved in some shootouts if the script goes right. 

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Our prop picks were very good last week (3-1) and we hit one of our two anytime touchdown scorer picks. If the Raiders had shown any life on offense, we probably would have gotten there across the board on the props. Let's keep it rolling. 

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Best bets for Monday Night Football

Panthers at 49ers Over 49.5

If you're a SportsLine member you could be sitting on this Over at 47.5, as I put that pick in a week ago when the lines were released. It was simply too low. And while 49.5 is past a key number, I ultimately think this game gets into the 50s. 

The 49ers offense looked incredibly explosive last week against the Cardinals in Brock Purdy's return. Purdy threw downfield aggressively and George Kittle was extremely involved in the passing game. This is a Panthers defense that is more than willing to give up some points, even if they've been better than expected for some chunks of the year.

Carolina also wants to run, run, run. But the Panthers might be the team most affected by another team's tempo in football: if you score on them early, they will abandon the run and let Bryce Young break the franchise record for passing yards, like they did last week against the Falcons when Atlanta got up early.

I expect the 49ers to score early here and then Carolina to do much of the same, winging it around against a 49ers defense that may be too injured to really put up a great fight, even in a massive playoff leverage spot at home.

Both teams are fighting for their lives in the NFC playoff race, and I fully expect kitchen sink performances from the two offenses in what should end up being a shootout.

Monday Night Football player props

Christian McCaffrey Over 120.5 total yards

This is a pretty massive number, but this is maybe the best rushing + receiving combo player in all of football. This is also a Christian McCaffrey Revenge Game against the team that drafted him and then traded him away midseason to the 49ers. Because of scheduling and because of injuries, he hasn't had a chance to play the Panthers yet as a member of the 49ers.

Generally I'd guess McCaffrey looks back on his time with the Panthers fondly and he's probably glad he got traded to the 49ers because he landed in Kyle Shanahan's system. 

But Carolina still felt like they could move on from him and he finally gets his chance to remind them that they were very, very wrong to think he was past his prime when they moved on from him. 

Rico Dowdle Over 17.5 receiving yards

Since he took over as the primary back, Dowdle hasn't been a dominant receiver out of the backfield most weeks. However, when the game script is right, he's very much used as an outlet valve for Young.

The game script sets up well for that here. In shootouts or with the Panthers trailing early to a heavily favored team on the road, Dowdle has surpassed this number several times. He can get there on one reception, obviously, but I think Young ends up peppering him to the tune of five or so targets and he easily picks this up with some second half dump offs. 

Tetairoa McMillan longest reception Over 21.5 yards

This number is a little juicy, but it's not too bad and it's lower than much of the market. McMillan had the best game of his career last week against the Falcons, going off for eight catches, 163 yards and two scores in Young's historic performance.

I'm not expecting that sort of production out of the rookie in a road primetime game, but he's been way over this number in each of his last two matchups, so the Panthers are targeting him down the field. He's also been over it six times all season.

The 49ers won't likely produce a bunch of pressure, and if Young's protection can hold up here, McMillain should be able to get down the field and get some good looks.

I really like this number if Carolina does in fact fall behind early, as the Panthers be forced to attack vertically more frequently.

Anytime touchdown picks

George Kittle

Kittle found the end zone twice last week and his number is shrunk down as a result. It feels like a pretty good spot for him to hit pay dirt again.

The tight end thrives when Purdy is under center and the Panthers, while they haven't been carved up week in and week out by the position, have given up plenty of good games to tight ends that operate as the focal point of their team's offense. 

I'd bank on Kittle scoring on some kind of play action situation near the red zone. 

Brian Robinson Jr.

This is a hefty price for a player who has been finding the end zone quite a bit lately, serving as the vulture for McCaffrey's fantasy owners, particularly in short-yardage situations near the goal line or later in games when the 49ers have a lead.

I think the Panthers will be competitive in this game, but the 49ers are a pretty hefty favorite, which certainly implies the possibility of them getting up early on Carolina and holding a big lead in the second half.

If that's the case, this is a good number for Robinson, who sees plenty of the dirty work later in games.