Jets vs. Patriots: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 11's Thursday Night Football matchup

Week 11's New York Jets vs. New England Patriots features our largest point spread of all Thursday Night Football games this year; only Buffalo hosting Miami was above 12 points. That's cause for concern if you're hoping for a good game. 

But there's still plenty of angles to attack this game from a spread perspective, as well as prop betting and anytime touchdown scorer picks, especially if we think we know the game script and how this might play out.

Click here to bet on Jets vs. Patriots at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets if their first bet wins, along with three months of NBA League Pass:

If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Jets versus Patriots game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Patriots -12.5 (-118)

We handed out the Patriots -11.5 in this week's Bet It Now column and we're certainly not going to shy away now, although if you're thinking of backing the Patriots, you probably want to do it sooner than later, as this is almost guaranteed to get to -13 and maybe even close as high as a full two touchdowns if the Pats keep getting peppered throughout the day.

New England is simply a better team, so the big spread is justified, but the bottom line is it's a bad matchup for the Jets on the field. 

New York wants to pound the football if at all possible and isn't, ahem, great at throwing the ball forward. It's just the reality of this Justin Fields-led offense. Unfortunately for the Jets, the one thing they really want to do is what the Patriots are really good at stopping.

Mike Vrabel's defense is first in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed and top five in yards per carry allowed, although if you're looking for a sliver of hope for the Jets rush offense, the Pats are allowing 4.8 yards per rush over their last three. 

If the Jets can run the ball, it's a different ball game, because if they can't and Fields is forced to throw, it could get seriously ugly for New York. 

Defensively, it's hard to see New York stopping New England. The terrible Browns defense was fine enough against the Jets last week. New York just got aided by multiple special teams touchdowns en route to the team's second straight win. 

The Jets will need more luck to pull out a massive upset Thursday and I just don't see the Pats making a bunch of mistakes. Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson should carve up this defense and the Pats can park the bus in the second half and run the ball, hoping Henderson pops off a couple more long runs like he did to close things out against Tampa Bay. 

Give me the Pats by 20+. 

You can bet on the Patriots to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn't win:

Jets vs. Patriots player props

TreVeyon Henderson longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-136)

Henderson became the "full-time starter" three games ago (we're qualifying it a bit since the Patriots clearly like to limit his touches -- he's not a full-blown workhorse). He's had 38 carries for 277 yards in those games, good for a 7.3 yards per carry average.

Last week against the Bucs, one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL over the past decade, Henderson averaged 10.5 yards per carry. He's not going to always be that efficient, but he's a big-play threat who takes a minimal number of carries for huge numbers, a la early career De'Von Achane. 

The Jets rank 21st in yards per rush allowed (4.5) and are even worse over their last three games (5.1 yards per carry allowed). 

This number is a full 2 yards lower than the rest of the market, so we're jumping all over it. With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Henderson is a lock to get around 20 total touches and I'd expect he gets 14+ carries for the third straight week unless this thing is completely out of hand by halftime. 

And if it is, Henderson probably broke off a long run already.  

Mack Hollins Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)

This number is starting to tick up and might move closer to 40 by the time the game kicks off. Hollins isn't some special receiver, but you know what he's good at? Blocking as a receiver. And you know what that gets him in a game where the Pats would love to run the ball a bunch? Tons of snaps.

Hollins played 79% of the snaps in Week 10, the most of any Patriots wide receiver. He and Drake Maye didn't play together at Carolina, but maybe there's a little UNC locker room love: the former Tar Heel connected with his fellow alumni for six catches (on 10 targets) and 106 yards last week.

A whopping 54 of those came on one play, but Hollins is a deep threat who will get some looks dialed up his way. If he's seeing 75% or more of the snaps, I want in on anything below 40 total receiving yards.

Justin Fields longest completion Under 25.5 yards (-110)

There are almost zero passing props available for Jets quarterbacks right now because, technically, Aaron Glenn hasn't said who is going to start for New York.

We all assume it's going to be Justin Fields, but there's a very real possibility he surprises everyone with Tyrod Taylor under center tonight to begin the game.

At the very least, we know Fields is on a short leash this evening. And, in an ideal world for this prop, Fields starts and then gets benched or doesn't start but gets used in some rushing packages.

Fields has four games this season with fewer than 54 passing yards, making this prop way too long against a good defense. We have multiple outs here and I'm quite frankly a little surprised to see this still sitting out there as of Thursday morning. 

TNF anytime touchdown scorer props

Hunter Henry +148

We have a game total of 43.5 that looks like it wants to come down and the possibility of a blowout (leading to minimal Patriots passes) so we have to be a little careful with these anytime touchdown scorer bets, especially when it comes to the New England pass catchers. 

Without Stevenson and with Terrell Jennings banged up, I could see New England deciding to throw a little more down by the goal line instead of just pounding Henderson here. 

Hunter is in the top 10 in the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line and presents a major matchup problem for a Jets defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends this season. 

D'Ernest Johnson +650

This is a major longshot here, not just because Johnson is north of 4-1 to score, but because he's not currently on the Patriots active roster! 

After playing six snaps for New England last week against Tampa, Johnson was sent back to the practice squad. But there's a decent chance he's elevated to the active roster at some point today with Jennings questionable. 

With the Patriots expecting to run the ball a bunch against a bad Jets defense with a lead, we'd love to have a longer number on a running back who could see garbage time carries for New England. 

If Jennings is ruled out (and that won't be until much later on Thursday) and Johnson is elevated, this number would drop below 3-1 in my opinion. 

So we're jumping on it now, knowing if Johnson doesn't play or isn't elevated, the bet would void anyway.