When the Jacksonville Jaguars stormed out of the Mile High City last December, they did so with their sixth straight win in hand. They still have not lost a regular-season game since that last meeting with the Denver Broncos. The 34-20 triumph in Denver last year was not enough to reshape the AFC picture as the Broncos still claimed the No. 1 seed, but in the early stages of the 2026 season, there are hints of a changing of the guard at the top of the conference.

Denver crawled out of the gate in Week 1 with a puzzling 31-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. If it cannot bounce back against a team that similarly delivered a beatdown last year, Sean Payton's crew will find itself quickly in an 0-2 hole. That is not nearly the kind of start that would suggest the Broncos are in store for another run to the AFC championship game.

Sunday will show what kind of sense of urgency exists in Denver. The Broncos have as many tools as anyone in the conference, as they showed last year when they put opposing quarterbacks in blenders, and Bo Nix orchestrated a mistake-free offense. They need to make better use of those weapons in Week 2, or else Jacksonville will put a serious damper on their home opener.

Where to watch Jaguars vs. Broncos live

Key storylines

  • Missed tackles: Denver's defense did not look ready to play football in Week 1. The unit's effort on "Monday Night Football" was among the worst in the Sean Payton era, especially on the ground, as they allowed a whopping 220 rushing yards to the Kansas City Chiefs. Much of that stemmed from pitiful tackling. The Broncos logged a 29.8% missed-tackle rate, the third-worst mark by any team since 2018. What's more, the 248 missed tackle yards attributed to the defense were the most in the Next Gen Stats database.
  • Davis Webb's home debut: It was not just the defense that floundered in the Broncos' season opener. Offensive coordinator Davis Webb has a lot of work to do before his second game as a play-caller. Offseason acquisition Jaylen Waddle hauled in just one catch for two yards in his Broncos debut, and the running game disappeared. The result was the lowest yardage output of the Sean Payton era (176) and the third-lowest scoring total (10).
  • Jaguars seek 10th straight regular-season win: Jacksonville's last loss in regular-season play came all the way back on Nov. 9, 2025. Since then, the Jaguars have been the best team in football on both sides of the ball. In their last nine contests, they posted NFL bests in points per game (33.7) and opponent points per game (14.0), which resulted in the league's highest PPG differential in any nine-game span since 2020-21. 
  • Trevor Lawrence stays hot: When the Jaguars defeated the Broncos in Week 16 last season, Trevor Lawrence torched Denver for four touchdowns. That performance highlights the best stretch of the former No. 1 overall draft pick's career. Lawrence is rounding into a premier NFL quarterback in real time and has a chance on Sunday to become just the fourth signal-caller with a win and multiple touchdown passes in 10 consecutive games.

Prediction

The market still has not caught up to the Jaguars. Despite their nine consecutive regular-season wins and despite the fact that their offense had its way with the Broncos the last time they met, Jacksonville heads to Mile High as a field goal underdog. Liam Coen has the offense humming. Only the Buffalo Bills have kept pace with them head-to-head since the midway mark of 2025. With the Broncos coming off a miserable first game with Davis Webb calling the shots, it is hard to believe they can buck the trend and put enough points on the board. Even if Denver's defense looks more like its typically imposing self (and it should, considering it thrives at home and should be livid after its wake-up call), the Jaguars can put up a number that the Broncos cannot match.

Pick: Jaguars 24, Broncos 17

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