How long is Lamar Jackson's Super Bowl window with the Ravens? And will he eventually reach 10,000 rush yards?

One of the biggest questions entering the 2025 NFL season is will Lamar Jackson ever reach a Super Bowl?

It remains the one big hurdle left in Jackson's career, as he's already won two NFL MVP awards and set a variety of NFL records, including passing Michael Vick as the all-time quarterback rushing leader on Christmas Day last season.

Baltimore has been in position to make a championship run but has yet to come through. The Ravens have won 78 regular season games since drafting Jackson in 2018, the most in a seven-season span in NFL history without a Super Bowl trip. 

2024 was their best chance to date as Jackson and Derrick Henry formed one of the most electrifying duos in league history that took the Ravens offense, and each other's games, to new heights. Jackson became the first quarterback in league history with 4,000-plus passing yards and 800-plus rushing yards in a season. He led the NFL in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt while recording the fourth-highest passer rating in a season in league history (119.6).

His game is clicking on all cylinders thanks to his all-world talent and the best supporting cast he's ever had. To get over the hump, he's obviously going to have to improve his performance in the playoffs. But, he also needs to maintain his level of play, or something close to it. 

Sportsbooks certainly think Jackson will continue to dominate, as he's the betting favorite (+500) to win his third NFL MVP award, per FanDuel. The Ravens, meanwhile, are tied with the Buffalo Bills for having the best odds to win the AFC (+360) and are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles as Super Bowl favorites at +700.

Since Jackson is the best dual-threat quarterback in league history, it's fair to wonder if Father Time will slow down one facet of his game sooner rather than later. And if it does, how will that impact his Super Bowl window?

Let's explore. I looked at the top 10 quarterback rushing leaders in NFL history (not named Jackson and Josh Allen because they are still in their primes) to see when they typically lost a step.

Top 10 QB rushing leaders in NFL history (excluding Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen)

There were two cliffs among the above group as far as noticeable declines, at age 27 and 32. 

Career rushing per start by age (among top 10 rushing QBs)

As you can see below, everyone ages differently. There were stark differences for these quarterbacks. 

Donovan McNabb lost a step early. He averaged over 35 rushing yards per start at age 27 or younger and roughly 13 per start after. He still made the Super Bowl at age 28, but his overall effectiveness started to wane in his late twenties as injuries and age took a toll. 

Cam Newton went downhill at age 29. Randall Cunningham's rushing cratered at age 30, two years after suffering a torn ACL. Steve McNair's last big season was at age 30. 

There are, of course, exceptions. Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers and John Elway won Super Bowls or MVPs in their mid-to-late thirties, but running was also not as big a part of their games as Jackson's. 

We can also put an asterisk on Michael Vick. He would be a great case study for how Jackson's game could age, but it's tough to get a read on that after Vick spent two of his prime seasons in prison.

Age of rushing decline

The point is, we don't know when Jackson will lose a step on the ground. He's currently 28 years old. The above history suggests his rushing will likely decline in the next year or two, then take another significant nosedive in his early thirties. Which means the Ravens' best Super Bowl window is right now. Once Jackson gets into his thirties, who knows.

So far, he's still going strong. His rushing yards per game has fallen in the last two years, but that probably has more to do with an emphasis on passing in Todd Monken's system and also limiting the mileage a little bit. 

Lamar Jackson career rushing per start

Per NFL Pro Insights, he averaged 2.0 rush yards over expectation per attempt (RYOE/att) last year, and more than 40% of his carries were clocked at 15-plus miles per hour. It's nowhere near his first MVP season in 2019, but neither are drop-offs compared with his past three seasons. 

Lamar Jackson rushing career 

The film passes the eye test. He still showed his lightning speed on this long run against the Texans on Christmas last year.

One thing working in Jackson's favor is his health. He's been healthy outside of an ankle injury in 2021 and a knee sprain in 2022, which could help him extend his elite rushing prowess (and his Super Bowl window) into his thirties. 

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This could also help him make more history. Jackson has 6,193 career rushing yards, and it's actually possible he could reach 10,000 rush yards for his career, which might be an unbreakable quarterback record. 

Here's how long it would take: 

• Best-case scenario, he continues at 50 rushing yards per game, a similar clip as the last two years. With that average he can reach 10,000 career rush yards in just over five years, so early 2030 when he is 33.
• If the decline continues to 40 rushing yards per game, it would take almost seven years, or late 2031 when he is 34. 
• If he really falls off a cliff to 30 rushing yards per game, it would take nearly nine years, or late 2033 when he is 36. 

Can Lamar Jackson reach 10,000 rushing yards?

Jackson has been proving doubters wrong his entire career, so I wouldn't bet against his rushing prime lasting into his thirties and him making a run at 10,000 career rushing yards. However, Father Time is still lurking, which could shorten his Super Bowl window.