Dolphins vs. Bills: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 3's Thursday Night Football matchup

The 2025 NFL season is off to a pretty bizarre start. Usually the first two weeks are filled with chaos and wild results that cause teams and fanbases to panic, but so far, things have largely gone as expected ... which is unexpected. Through two weeks, teams favored by four or more points 12-0 straight up, and teams -3 or more are 19-2 straight up. The lone two losses? The Chiefs as favorites over the Chargers in Brazil in Week 1 and the Steelers against the Seahawks last week.

So far, it's been chalky. Should we expect more of the same in Week 3? Or should we expect and welcome chaos? Chaos, of course. I'm not sure it's going to happen with the Bills and Dolphins, but what better place to start? As we said last week, this matchup is on Prime Video: Call your folks and remind them where to watch, otherwise they'll bug you five minutes after kickoff and no one wants that. 

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There's plenty of injury news for both sides. The Bills are without two top defenders in linebacker Matt Milano and stud defensive lineman Ed Oliver. Those two being out could be part of why this number got pushed to Buffalo -11.5 in some spots. Miami is also dealing with injuries, namely tight end Darren Waller (groin, out again) and Jaylen Waddle (questionable but expected to play) might make it tough sledding for Tua Tagovailoa and this offense that desperately needs a win.

If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Dolphins-Bills game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Bills first-half team total: Over 16.5 points

The Bills -12.5 actually made my column on "bet it now" because I thought there was a decent chance the line would take off in the direction of Buffalo laying two touchdowns. Obviously the Milano and Oliver injuries changed that, but I still wouldn't rule out the Bills romping Miami here. Josh Allen is 13-2 against the Dolphins -- winning on Thursday will match him with Dak Prescott for the best record by an active quarterback against a single opponent (14-2 versus the Giants). Only Dan Marino (irony!) had more touchdown passes against one team in his first 15 starts (41 versus the Jets) than Allen has against the Dolphins (40). And Sean McDermott is a ridiculous 9-0 at home against Miami in his career, with an even more ridiculous +125 point differential in those games (winning by 13.9 points per game if you're not a math major). 

But I'm a little worried about Miami coming through the backdoor here, so instead I'm going to dabble in the team total market, specifically the first-half team total market, banking on a hot start from Allen and Co. against a beat-up defense. I don't care what Miami does in this case; in fact, I want them to score to push the Bills and get the ball back to Allen faster. 

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Two touchdowns and a field goal doesn't seem that much to ask, I just need the Bills to be super efficient and go full Superman against a team they routinely destroy anyway. 

Dolphins vs. Bills player props

De'Von Achane Over 38.5 receiving yards (-111)

Achane disappointed a bit as the Dolphins crumbled in Week 2, but he's been quietly putting up numbers this season. In just two games so far this year, he's got 14 targets for 11 catches, 112 yards and two scores. He's capable of hitting this on a single catch. In a game with Mike McDaniel under fire, I expect the Dolphins to not only feed one of their most explosive playmakers but to also ensure he stays on the field, because an ugly loss might mean McDaniel loses his job. The game script and injury report are tailor-made for Achane dumpoffs, and I'd expect to see plenty of them. This number at MGM is also much lower than the rest of the market.

Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 receptions (-112)

The reason I want to attack the Dolphins from a player prop perspective is pretty clear, right? They're going to most likely be in a negative game script the entire night Thursday, and even if they aren't, Miami doesn't have the defense in place to sit back and try to melt clock against one of the best offenses in football. Jaylen Waddle is on the injury report, and if he misses time or is limited, Tyreek's going to get FED. 

TNF anytime touchdown props

Keon Coleman +196

I'm not going to put too much stock into last week's matchup against the Jets, a total domination from start to finish. The Jets provided zero offense whatsoever to push the Bills, who could have easily scored 50 points if they wanted. It was a James Cook game through and through, and I think Coleman can find the end zone here like he did in Week 1.

Ray Davis +380

I also like Achane as a touchdown scorer, but that should be obvious from the note above about the Dolphins offense, the game script, his receiving yards, etc. Instead, let's look to a guy who is going to get TONS of carries if this game gets out of hand. Davis sees his spike weeks when the Bills are up big. When they've decided to ease the workload on Cook, they let the backup eat. I would absolutely sprinkle on last touchdown scorer for Davis at +1700 or longer if it's out there as well, since he could be punching it in late for the Bills, likely while being handed the ball by Mitch Trubisky.