Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction: NFC East rivals look to bounce back in Dak Prescott vs. Jayden Daniels duel

The Washington Commanders (3-3) versus the Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1) Week 7 matchup at AT&T Stadium isn't a game that could officially eliminate either team from the postseason, but it has some of those vibes.

Both teams blew leads in the fourth quarter and lost on game-winning fields goals as time expired in Week 6: the Cowboys suffered a 30-27 defeat at the Carolina Panthers after leading 24-20 in the fourth quarter, and the Commanders experienced a 25-24 defeat vs. the Chicago Bears after leading 24-16 in the fourth quarter. There are 10 teams in the NFC that enter Week 7 with two or fewer losses, so a defeat here will set back the loser of this matchup as the second third of the 2025 season begins.

"We got to win it. We got to win this game," Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said Thursday. "We've got to get better in every aspect of this, and we've got to win in the fourth quarter. I understand where some of these losses have come late. We got to expect to win. We got to go do what's necessary and just win."

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Dallas enters Week 7 as the NFL's most Jekyll and Hyde team: they're the No. 1 total offense (387.5 total yards per game) and No. 3 scoring offense (29.7 points per game) while also being the second-worst scoring defense (30.7 points per game allowed) and the worst total defense (411.7 total yards per game allowed. That places plenty of pressure on Prescott and Dallas' offense to be essentially perfect, an impossible standard that the Cowboys attack will continue to attempt to chase in Week 7.

"It's my standard [getting points on every possession]. It's our standard: it's what we believe that we can do, what we expect to do," Prescott said. "So I don't think it's any added pressure through our defense's early struggles. One, we've got to trust them. We're going to do our job, that's part of being a pro: doing your job and trusting the man next to you is going to do theirs. ... When we come off the field, if we don't score or we get to the red zone and get a field goal and not a touchdown, that whole group is pissed and unsatisfied. ... It's because we expect to, and it's because we have the ability to. ... Damn sure not unrealistic. I feel like I need to score every time. I feel like I need to complete every pass. ... You better feel that way and you better think that way."  

Both teams will be without two of their most impactful players on Sunday with Commanders Pro Bowl wide receiver Terry McLaurin (quad) and Cowboys Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs (concussion) both ruled out on Friday. 

Where to watch Commanders vs. Cowboys live

• When: Sunday, Oct. 19 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: AT&T Stadium -- Arlington, Texas
• TV: Fox | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Odds: Commanders -1.5; O/U 54.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cowboys vs. Commanders: Need to know

How will Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott distribute the football vs. Dan Quinn's defense with WR CeeDee Lamb rejoining George Pickens in the lineup? 

Prescott has thrown 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in the three games Lamb missed from Weeks 4 through 6 after suffering a sprained ankle in a Week 3 defeat at the Chicago Bears. He was able to continue producing at a prolific clip because of how explosive, 24-year-old wide receiver George Pickens stepped up. Pickens' six receiving touchdowns are tied with Detroit Lions All-Pro receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown for the NFL's 2025 season lead, and his 525 receiving yards stand as the third-most. He is also on a five-game streak with a receiving touchdown, tied for the longest active touchdown streak in the NFL with Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. 

So will the football be force fed to Lamb in order to knock the All-Pro's rust off? Not according to Prescott, but Lamb will obviously continue to be a featured component of the Cowboys' high-flying aerial attack. 

"It's as much Schotty, the play caller, and the guys' [coaches] in the game plan, [their] responsibility of putting them in those positions where they are read No. 1 or read No. 2," Prescott said. "From there, it's easy for me. Just stay within myself, keep reading the defense the way I've been seeing it, staying within the play, whoever gets open gets it. ... Obviously from the way that they orchestrate it, he'll [Lamb] get his chances."

Both Lamb and Pickens should get plenty of chances on Sunday facing Commanders coach Dan Quinn, who worked as Dallas' defensive coordinator for three years from 2021 to 2023 when the Cowboys won 12 games in three consecutive seasons. Quinn's unit with Washington defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr., who worked as Quinn's passing game coordinator in Dallas from 2021 to 2023, calling the plays runs man coverage on 29.1% of their defensive snaps, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL.

"They're very aggressive. He [Whitt] trusts his back end [the secondary] and rightfully so: those guys are young, talented, and they can play man," Lamb said Thursday. "It shows all over the tape, and they have a good [pass] rush. Very familiar with a lot of guys on that defensive end over there. For me, it's really just preparing against what I've been dealing with [in practice] my second through fourth years here [2021-2023] when he was here. I'm very familiar with their [Quinn's and Whitt's] defense and very familiar with Joe Whitt."

Will Jayden Daniels, Washington's high-powered ground game stomp Dallas' ailing defense?   

On the flip side of the ball, Dallas' defense is fresh off being shredded on the ground by former Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle in a Week 6 defeat. Dowdle exacted revenge on the Cowboys for letting him walk in free agency this offseason in favor of signing Javonte Williams by rumbling for 183 yards on 30 carries, a 6.1 yards-per-carry average. Dallas now ranks as the NFL's fourth-worst run defense, allowing an average of 142.2 rushing yards per game. 

That's not ideal entering a matchup with Commanders 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year dual threat quarterback Jayden Daniels and Washington's second-ranked ground game, 151.0 rushing yards game. 

"We have to be better with our techniques, better with our hands. It's all stuff that's correctable and fixable," Cowboys defensive tackle Kenny Clark said Wednesday. "We just have to get all that stuff sorted away. 

Even if Clark and the Cowboys can do better on the ground, they need to tighten up against Daniels, who has thrown seven touchdowns and only one interception in four starts, and the passing game as well since Dallas enters Week 7 as the NFL's worst passing defense, allowing 269.5 passing yards per game. 

"We have to be able to rush to him, but at the same time be able to rush smart," Clark said. "He's an elusive guy, and he has a lot of speed, so we just have to be able to work together. On top of that, just get hits on him. That's the biggest thing: being able to play good coverage on his receivers, and when we get opportunities, we have to make sure we get hits."

Chief among Dallas' issues is something basic under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus: communication. Missed calls in both the run and pass games have led to 49 explosive plays allowed this season -- the second most in the league, trailing only the Miami Dolphins (50). Much of the issues have come because of Dallas' corners like Diggs, DaRon Bland and others struggling to all get on the same page in Eberflus' zone coverage based scheme. Dallas is running zone on 87.2% of their defensive snaps, the highest rate in the NFL, and running man on just 7.9% of their defensive snaps, the lowest rate in the league. Both Diggs and Bland led the NFL in interceptions in seasons under Quinn, whose defenses are much more man coverage based. Eberflus might feel comfortable playing more man coverage this week with Washington's top two receivers, Terry McLaurin (quad, ruled out) and Deebo Samuel (heel, listed as questionable) dealing with injuries this week. 

"It's very frustrating. It's all these points [given up], the receivers are running wide open down the field, too many busted coverages," Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs said Sunday, via The Dallas Morning News. "It's a lot. I feel like we're all over the place, and we really don't have an identity."

Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction, pick

Washington being without McLaurin and potentially Samuel in Week 7 will allow Dallas' defense to get a stop or two, and Prescott should continue to light up the scoreboard with both Pickens and Lamb on the field against the familiar Quinn/Whitt scheme. That will be just enough for the Cowboys to escape with a slim victory. 

Prediction: Cowboys 38, Commanders 35