Cowboys vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, line, time, how to watch: 2025 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks by proven model

The Thanksgiving NFL games are amongst the most watched on a yearly basis, and that should certainly be the case with the middle matchup of Thursday's slate. It has Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys hosting Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs. Dallas (5-5-1) is coming off 24-21 comeback victory over Philadelphia on Sunday, and the Cowboys are 34-22-1 all-time on Thanksgiving. Kansas City (6-5) toppled Indianapolis, 23-20, in Week 12 and will be part of the NFL Thanksgiving tradition for the first time since 2006, going 5-5 all-time on Turkey Day.

Kickoff is from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Cowboys have won five straight home matchups against the Chiefs. Kansas City is the 3-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Cowboys odds, while the over/under for total points is 52. Before making any Cowboys vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

Be sure to watch this game on CBS or Paramount+, where new users can get a free one-week trial. Sign up here.

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 on a 49-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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Now, the model has zeroed in on Kansas City vs. Dallas. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Cowboys vs. Chiefs:

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs are coming off a win over the previously 8-2 Colts, despite Mahomes not throwing a touchdown, which shows that the team can win in multiple ways. Kareem Hunt ran for over 100 yards versus what was the No. 5 run defense, while Indy's Jonathan Taylor -- who leads the NFL in both rushing yards and touchdowns -- was held to just 58 yards on the ground and kept out of the endzone. As for Mahomes, the native Texan should relish his first pro game in Dallas as he gets to face the Cowboys' No. 30 pass defense as the Chiefs look to improve to 4-1 ATS versus NFC opponents this year. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Cowboys can cover

It's been over 50 years since the Chiefs won in Dallas, as the Cowboys have prevailed in their last five home games versus Kansas City. Additionally, the Cowboys have won three straight Thanksgiving Day games, with a 16.7-point average margin of victory in them. Despite Andy Reid, Mahomes and Kelce being on the other sideline, it's the Cowboys who will have the best offense on the field as they rank first in yards and fourth in scoring. Additionally, the Cowboys should be able to take advantage of a team which has gotten a little sloppy as of late as the Chiefs have as many turnovers (six) over their last four games as they had over their previous 18 regular season games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Cowboys vs. Chiefs picks

For the NFL Week 13 game of Chiefs vs. Cowboys, the model is leaning Over the total. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Cowboys vs. Chiefs, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Cowboys spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 48-33 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.