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Arguably the biggest game of Week 12 of the NFL season has Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts visiting Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Indy has shocked the league by jumping out to an 8-2 record, while Kansas City is just as surprising with its meager 5-5 record. The Chiefs are still threats to get hot and make another Super Bowl run as long as Mahomes and Andy Reid are there, but falling below .500 would be extremely disappointing. A win, meanwhile, would be a true statement for the Colts.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites, according to the latest Chiefs vs. Colts consensus odds. The over/under for total points scored is 44.5. Before making any Colts vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out the NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model. Be sure to watch this game on CBS and Paramount+, where new users can get a free one-week trial. Sign up here. 

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Where to watch Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday

When: Sunday, Nov. 23
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS 
Stream: Paramount+
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Colts vs. Chiefs betting preview

Odds: Chiefs -3.5, over/under 49.5

Indianapolis is 6-3-1 against the spread and 6-4 to the Over. Kansas City is 5-5 ATS and 7-3 to the Under. Four of the last five Colts games have gone Over, while five of the last five Chiefs games have gone Under. 

Colts vs. Chiefs SGP

Final odds: +810 at FanDuel (wager $100 to win $810)

Click here to bet Colts vs. Chiefs at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $150 in bonus bets if their first bet of at least $5 wins:

Model's Colts vs. Chiefs score prediction, picks

Popular sentiment says the Chiefs can't be declared dead until there's no longer a pulse to detect, and the model agrees. It expects Arrowhead to remain a fortress, as Kansas City wins in 65% of the model's simulations. The Chiefs also cover in 57% of the simulations. The Under hits 51% of the time. 

Colts vs. Chiefs score prediction: Chiefs 29, Colts 22

Want more Week 12 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 12 NFL game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.