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The 2026 NBA Playoffs on Thursday feature two conference semifinals matchups, and the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder will try to stay on course for a potential NBA Finals matchup. The top seeds both went up 1-0 with victories in Tuesday's series openers. Thursday's action gets going with Cavaliers vs. Pistons in an Eastern Conference matchup at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with Lakers vs. Thunder in the Western Conference at 9:30 p.m. ET. 

Cavaliers guard Sam Merrill is questionable with a hamstring issue, while the Pistons have reported no significant injuries. The West matchup will be missing a couple of stars again Thursday as they deal with lingering hamstring injuries. Luka Doncic, who led the NBA in scoring at 33.5 points per game in the regular season, is expected to remain sidelined for the Lakers. The Thunder's Jalen Williams, who averaged 21.4 points in last year's playoffs but has been plagued by ailments all season, also is likely to miss at least one more game.

Now we offer the best bets for Thursday's games, using recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. It has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

See the FanDuel promo code for a new-user offer before placing your NBA Playoffs bets Thursday.

NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Thursday, May 7

Pistons -3.5 vs. Cavaliers

The Pistons didn't have much trouble with Cleveland in Game 1, and the SportsLine model doesn't expect them to be in much danger Thursday. Cade Cunningham had 23 points and seven assists, and five other Detroit players scored in double digits. The Pistons forced 20 turnovers and had 12 steals. The model sees more of the same in Game 2, projecting the hosts to win by eight, and they are covering in 64% of simulations for a 'B' grade. Detroit is 35-9 at home this season, including the playoffs.

Jalen Duren Over 15.5 Points

Duren had just 11 points Tuesday but he pulled down 12 rebounds, so he was heavily involved. The center averaged 19.5 points in the regular season and closed the regular slate by scoring at least 16 in 14 of the final 15 games. He has only topped this number once in the playoffs, but the model projects him for 17.6 points, making this a 3.5-star play. He averaged 21.6 points in three meetings with the Cavs in the regular season.

Thunder -15.5 vs. Lakers

The Thunder won all four games in their sweep of the Suns by at least nine points and beat the Lakers by 18 on Tuesday. They beat L.A. by an average of 29 points in three regular season meetings. OKC showed no rust in Game 1, as Chet Holmgren had 24 points and 12 rebounds. Reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, also the favorite for the 2026 award, scored 18, but the model sees that ballooning for Game 2. SGA is projected for 30.7 points and the Thunder are covering 54% of the time.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points + rebounds

As noted, Gilgeous-Alexander was held to 18 points but contributed elsewhere in Game 1, posting seven assists, two blocks and a steal. He also had seven turnovers, so he'll be out to put up a better showing in Game 2. SGA averaged almost 34 points in the first-round sweep of Phoenix, and the model projects him for 35.4 points and rebounds. He averaged 31.3 points + rebounds in the three regular-season meetings but averaged just 29 minutes. He is averaging 35.6 minutes in the playoffs.    

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