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The Oklahoma City Thunder aim to complete another sweep, while the Detroit Pistons look for a commanding 3-1 series lead when the top seeds take the court Monday in Game 4 of their respective series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. The Thunder, the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, swept the Phoenix Suns out of the postseason, and now they're looking to do the same to the Los Angeles Lakers. Detroit, the top seed in the Eastern Conference, is trying to rebound from a 116-109 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 and will have to win on the road to take control of the series.

The Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites at home, while the Thunder are favored by 10.5 points in the latest NBA Playoffs odds at FanDuel. Kevin Huerter (adductor) and Caris LeVert (heel) are questionable for the Pistons, while Cleveland has no significant injuries. The Thunder will remain without Jalen Williams (hamstring) while L.A.'s Luka Doncic (hamstring) also will miss Game 4.   

We've identified the best NBA bets from Monday's two Game 4 matchups with guidance from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. The model runs those simulations, then determines its top money line picks, spread picks and total picks, as well as NBA player props. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. 

The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now we are breaking down the model's top picks for Monday's games, including a pair of Over/Under picks and two player prop bets. Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bettors can also combine two or more of the model's best bets into a parlay bet at FanDuel for a potentially greater profit.

See the FanDuel promo code for a new-user offer before you place your NBA Playoffs bets on Monday.

NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Monday, May 11

  • Pistons vs. Cavaliers Over 213.5
  • Jalen Duren Over 13.5 points
  • Thunder vs. Lakers Over 214.5
  • Shai Gilegous-Alexander Over 35.5 points + assists  

Pistons vs. Cavaliers Over 213.5

Both teams have top-10 offenses, with the Cavs averaging nearly 120 points per game (third in NBA) and the Pistons averaging almost 118. Detroit is far better defensively, but the teams combine to allow 224 per game. The total has gone Over in four of Cleveland's last six games, which includes Saturday's victory (225 points), and the Cavs are 46-46 on Over/Unders this season. The Pistons are 14-11 to the Over following a loss. The SportsLine model has Over 213.5 hitting in 55.7% of its simulations.   

Jalen Duren Over 13.5 points

Duren hasn't had a lot of scoring success in the postseason, but he has been in some foul trouble and his shooting has been off. He averaged 19.5 points in the regular season and comes off one of his best shooting games of the playoffs. Duren hit five of eight shots (62.5%) in scoring 11 points in Game 3 after shooting under 40% in the first two games. He shot 65% from the field in the regular season, and the SportsLine model pegs him for 17.2 points.    

Thunder vs. Lakers Over 214.5

These are two of the league's best shooting teams, and the Over has hit in four of the past six meetings between them. OKC has gone Over in five of its past six and is 48-41 to the Over for the season and 25-18 O/U on the road. The Lakers are 22-19 to the Over as underdogs this season, including 9-8 O/U as home dogs. The SportsLine model has this one going Over 214.5 points in 59.7% of simulations, earning a 'B' grade, with the projected total going above 220. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 35.5 points + assists

There's not much to say about SGA that hasn't been said, but the reigning league MVP and current favorite for this year's award (-165 at FanDuel) hasn't needed to dominate this series. Still, he's averaging 28.3 points and 7.0 assists in the postseason and is capable of dropping 35 or 40 points at any time. With a series sweep and some time off within their grasp, he will be motivated to finish the job. Gilgeous-Alexander went well over this total in three of four games in the last series. The model projects him for 38.3 points + assists.