Why Cubs' five-game series Brewers is huge test for Chicago, even with NL Central chances dried up

The Cubs are set to host the best team in baseball, the Brewers, for a five-game series this week at Wrigley Field. It starts with a doubleheader on Monday. Several weeks ago, it looked like this would be a huge series to shape how the division race for the NL Central title would shake out. Instead, the Brewers enter the series with an eight-game lead. 

The division race appears to be over. Entering Monday, SportsLine gives the Brewers a 94.6% chance to win the NL Central. Milwaukee is a -2000 favorite to capture the division title on Caesars Sportsbook. Still, the Cubs do have an opportunity this week. 

The sky has been falling for a while on the north side of Chicago. Fans are unhappy and, on occasion, booing in Wrigley Field. After all, the Cubs had a 6 ½-game lead in the NL Central after beating the Brewers on June 17, humming along with one of the best offenses in baseball. 

Since then, the Cubs have been buried in the NL Central, now facing an eight-game deficit to the Brewers. It hasn't been as much of a collapse as it's been a case of the Brewers playing like one of the best teams in MLB history for months. Still, the Cubs haven't exactly been good, either. They've been mediocre, having gone 25-25 in the last two months. They're 7-8 in August and 13-14 in the second half. Again, it isn't bad. It's just mediocre: Not falling apart, but not playing good enough ball and getting lapped by the Brewers. 

They aren't in danger of losing a playoff spot or anything. Not yet at least. The Cubs are 70-53, only a half-game back of both the Dodgers and Phillies for the second-best record in the NL. They hold the top Wild Card by 1 ½ games and are six up on the first non-playoff team. That certainly isn't a bad place to be. It just feels worse because the Brewers went in light-speed mode since early July. 

The Cubs' offense has been bad, though. The power has disappeared. 

Before the All-Star break (the "first half"), the Cubs ranked second in the majors in runs scored, second in slugging percentage and third in home runs. Since the break, the Cubs rank 29th in runs scored, 25th in slugging and 23rd in home runs. Though a lot of players -- other than rookie Matt Shaw -- have struggled, we can probably pinpoint the major decline to three sluggers. 

Kyle Tucker has been struggling since the start of July, basically. Seiya Suzuki saw a major dip in his numbers from mid-July into early August. Pete Crow-Armstrong went through an utterly miserable stretch for much of August, though it's possible he's snapped out of it with a good series over the weekend. Those three weren't the only contributors in the first half, but they were the heavy hitters on one of baseball's most powerful offenses. They've only combined for five home runs and 23 RBI since the start of July (26 games). Just to illustrate the point, the trio combined for 21 home runs and 68 RBI in 27 games in May. 

Cubs' second-half hibernation

	First Half	Second Half
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC CF	.265/.302/.544, 25 HR, 71 RBI (95 games)	.242/.293/.429, 2 HR, 8 RBI (25 games)
Kyle Tucker CHC RF	.280/.384/.499 17 HR, 56 RBI (95 games)	.190/.346/.250 1 HR, 6 RBI (25 games)
Seiya Suzuki CHC DH	.263/.319/.547 25 HR, 77 RBI (92 games)	.193/.321/.295 2 HR, 9 RBI (26 games)

Where the opportunity lies with this coming series is for the Cubs to get things right offensively against the best team in the league. They can win the series and gain some momentum moving forward to push for the top NL wild card spot, which would mean hosting the three-game playoff series in Wrigley Field instead of having to travel to some place like San Diego or Philadelphia. 

The down side is obviously going 1-4 or even getting swept in five games by the Brewers and potentially putting a playoff spot in peril, but we're trying to look at the opportunity aspect here and there's a decent chance they can get things going again. They were too good on offense for too long to believe it's all disappeared. 

And if the Cubs do something like win four of five here -- which would cut the Brewers' lead to five games with more than six weeks left in the season -- I suppose they could start dreaming about taking the division (though I sure wouldn't count on it). 

First things first, though. The Cubs need to start hitting the ball with authority like they did in the first half. It seems like maybe PCA is getting his groove back. Suzuki and Tucker need to follow. Then the Cubs will resemble a playoff team again instead of the mediocre one they've been while the Brewers have been world-beaters. 

It starts Monday afternoon in the Friendly Confines. Let's see what you've got in the tank, Cubs.