Phillies vs. Mets series: Everything to know as division rivals face off with NL East title on the line

In the National League East, a defining stretch of schedule is in the offing as the first-place Philadelphia Phillies and second-place New York Mets begin a three-game set at Citi Field on Monday. 

Going into the series, the Phillies hold a robust seven-game lead in the division, and SportsLine gives them a 94.3% chance of winning the NL East for a second straight year. The Mets, though, have a chance to whittle down that lead heading into the final weeks of the season. In addition to the three-game set that starts Monday, the Mets and Phils will also play four games in Queens from Sept. 8-11. So that's seven games in 18 days between these two divisional and blood rivals. Obviously, the Mets will need to dominate those seven head-to-headers if they're to have any hope of winning the division for the first time since 2015. 

As for the first of those two series, here are the essentials for the showdown in Philly. Select games can be streamed regionally on fubo (start watching and save $20 now).

The Phillies' three starters in this series have combined for a 3.28 ERA and a 3.26 FIP in 67 starts this season. Meantime, the Mets' three starters lined up for the Philly series have pitched to a combined 3.11 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 29 total starts. 

Now let's have a quick look at some things to know about this potentially critical series.

The Phillies have taken charge in recent weeks

While the current standings give no hint of it, the Mets were once in charge of this division. They were in first place as recently as Aug. 2, and back on June 12 their NL East lead peaked at 5 ½ games. August, though, has been unkind to the Queenslanders while at the same time being quite accommodating to Philly interests.

For the current month, the Mets have gone 7-14. The silver lining, such as it is, is that the Mets have actually outscored the opposition (120-116) over that same span. That suggests simple misfortune has played a leading role in the Mets' August slide down the standings. On the other side, the Phillies have gone 15-7 in August and outscored opponents by a margin of 113-79 for the month. Across all of MLB, only the Brewers have a better record than Philly does in August, and just two teams -- the Padres and Red Sox -- have permitted fewer runs for the month (78 by San Diego, and 76 by Boston). Circling back to the home team, only the Brewers have scored more runs than the Mets have during the current month, which means this series figures to be a clash of recent strengths. 

The Mets lead the season series

The Mets and Phils have met six times this season, and the Mets hold a 4-2 edge coming in. Here's how those games have played out: 

• 4/21: NYM 5, PHI 4
• 4/22: NYM 5, PHI 1
• 4/23: NYM 4, PHI 3 (10 innings)
• 6/20: PHI 10, NYM 2
• 6/21: NYM 11, PHI 4
• 6/22: PHI 7, NYM 1

Philly actually outscored the Mets 29-28 in those six games, but that's not what matters. What matters is that the team that wins the season series holds the first tiebreaker should any deadlocks in the standings need to be sorted out. Since division rivals play each other 13 times, the Mets are only one win away from locking up the season series against the Phillies and thus securing the tiebreaker. Assuming the Mets get that one remaining win, they'd be named NL East champs should the two clubs wind up tied atop the standings at the end of the regular season.

There's no Zack Wheeler

The Phillies were recently hit with the news that ace and NL Cy Young contender Zack Wheeler will miss the remainder of the 2025 season after undergoing surgery to address venous thoracic outlet syndrome in his throwing shoulder. That brings with it an estimated recovery time of six to eight months, which means no Wheeler for the rest of the year. 

In 17 career starts against the Mets, Wheeler -- himself a former Met -- had a 3.36 ERA with 110 strikeouts and 24 unintentional walks across 107 innings. For the Mets, missing out on Wheeler across these seven head-to-head games is a theoretical benefit to them. However, the Phillies have depth and excellence in the rotation that go beyond their No. 1 starter. Consider that Phillies starters not named Zack Wheeler this season have combined for an ERA of 3.62 and an FIP of 3.52 this season. Those two figures would rank fourth and first, respectively, among MLB rotations this season. As well, Aaron Nola, who's surprisingly been the Philly weak link among starters this season, isn't lined up to pitch in this series.

The Mets will be challenged by the Philly lefties 

As you see above, two left-handers, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, are lined up to start for the Phillies in this series. While the Phillies' offense has fairly balanced platoon splits this year, the Mets have been much better against right-handers. Consider: 

• Mets vs. RHPs in 2025: .251/.330/.438, 20.8 K%
• Mets vs. LHPs in 2025: .233/.309/.383, 21.8 K%

Framed another way, the Mets' offense ranks fourth in MLB with a wOBA (what's this?) of .332 against RHPs, but they rank just 16th with a wOBA of .303 against lefties. It's also worth noting that the Mets' big deadline addition on offense, Cedric Mullins, bats lefty. Potentially, this an edge for the Phillies.

Prediction

While Wheeler's dominating absence is duly noted, the Phillies have two lefties starting and have been the better team overall and in recent weeks. The guess here is they take two of three and modestly expand their NL East lead over the Mets.