Should the Pirates trade Paul Skenes? Pros and cons of a blockbuster deal for the Cy Young winner
Skenes' talent and the Pirates' unwillingness to build a team around him have combined for a nonstop flurry of rumors
By
Matt Snyder
•
5 min read
The Pittsburgh Pirates secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft thanks in part to a 100-loss season in 2022. I say "in part" because the Pirates actually didn't have the worst record in baseball that year. It was the first time ever that MLB used a draft lottery and the Pirates were the first ever winners.
Their prize was just about as good as it could get. Out of LSU, a big, right-handed pitcher named Paul Skenes was selected. He cruised through the minors and debuted in the majors on May 11, 2024, less than a year after the draft.
No exaggeration, Skenes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since his arrival. Through two seasons with a bad Pirates team, he's gone 21-13 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 386 strikeouts against 74 walks in 320 ⅔ innings. He's had a sub-2.00 ERA in each season. He won the Rookie of the Year last year and Cy Young this year, the latter unanimously.
Oh, and he's still only 23 years old. His birthday isn't until late May.
But still, there are whispers about the Pirates trading Skenes. Sometimes louder than whispers.
Pirates general manager Ben Cherington touched on it at the general managers meetings last week.
"It's always respectful. Teams have to ask the question, right?" Cherington said. "I suspect that won't end. But the answer has been consistent.
"Paul Skenes is going to be a Pirate in 2026."
He should listen. Cherington's job is to listen. That doesn't mean he'll make a deal or that he should. So, let's run through this with the pros and cons of trading one of baseball's biggest superstars.
Cons of trading Skenes
Skenes is one of the best pitchers in baseball. I already said as much. Why would you want to trade one of the best pitchers? To hopefully get back a pitcher or two that might be as good someday? Why hope for the best when you already have the sure thing?
Skenes is entering his age-24 season, hasn't been overworked and is a physically huge human being with an incredibly strong arm. Every single pitcher carries inherent injury risk, but compared to others, Skenes sure feels less risky than the ordinary pitcher, doesn't he?
Further, Skenes is under team control through 2029. He doesn't even enter his arbitration years until 2027. He's cheap right now, which means this is the time for the Pirates to commit to spending money around him. He's the franchise centerpiece. Act like it. They should have already done it, but it's not too late.
Right now, the Pirates have an estimated payroll for next season of $60.1 million. The offseason isn't close to being over yet, but it's pathetic to even see that figure right now. There are good players available in free agency, so go build around Skenes by spending some money. For those who think the Pirates can't afford more, USA Today reported the following last May:
The Pittsburgh Pirates, according to information received by the players union and confirmed by several owners, are one of the most profitable teams in all of baseball, stashing a huge chunk of their revenue sharing monies instead of investing in their team year after year.
It lines up with what's been apparent for years. Pirates ownership is just getting more rich off the team instead of trying to win. Yes, there's revenue sharing from the so-called rich teams. The Pirates just pocket a portion of it instead of spending on the product for the fans, despite the latter being the intended goal of revenue sharing.
The Pirates don't look in horrible shape with their pitching staff heading toward next year. Skenes is a top-shelf ace. Mitch Keller is a fine mid-rotation guy. There's promise in Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler. Jared Jones will return from his elbow surgery at some point. They have some more prospect help coming, too, in Hunter Barco and Thomas Harrington.
The offense is another matter. It was atrocious last year and there's very little help coming from inside the organization. There are some good free-agent hitters. Do the math.
Now, someone might claim that trading Skenes for offensive help would make sense, but the problem is Skenes still does heavy lifting in making that rotation look respectable. Keller isn't an ace and while there's promise elsewhere on the staff, there are also tons of question marks. Skenes is an ace and a sure thing. He has to stay.
Finally, trading Skenes just a few years after taking him first overall sends a message that this isn't a serious organization. Kicking the proverbial can down the street for another few years says what to the fan base, let alone to the rest of baseball? We're perpetually rebuilding.
If there's never contention on the table, what's the point of the fans sticking around? They'd be running a veritable minor-league operation, doing so while playing against major-league competition.
The optics of the move would be just as bad as the move would be for the baseball team. Both would be pitiful and embarrassing.
Pros of trading Skenes
I guess there's an argument that a trade package for Skenes could be monstrous. If the Pirates were guaranteed to get back something like five stud players for the future, why not? And if you strike now before Skenes even hits arbitration, that means the offers would be higher than they'll be in the ensuing few seasons. Each year that Skenes gets closer to free agency (and more expensive, the smaller the return.
The problem is that when you're talking about prospects, nothing is guaranteed, as noted above.
For me, realistically, there are no pros to trading Skenes.
Even the discussion is an insult to the fan base and if it starts happening from the front office -- meaning it's likely coming from ownership -- there should be a full-on revolt. Bob Nutting has already disrespected the fan base for long enough, and those fans don't need to deal with this on top of everything else.
You keep Paul Skenes and build a winner around him.
