MLB wild card picks: Yankees at Blue Jays Game 1 picks, props, best bets for Saturday, Oct. 4

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees play each other many times every regular season since they're AL East rivals, but this is the first time that these two foes will face off against one another in the MLB playoffs. The Blue Jays will host Game 1 of this best-of-five ALDS, with first pitch set for 4:08 p.m. ET on FOX.

If you're interested in MLB betting for the playoffs and want to check out the latest Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds, projections and player props, the SportsLine Inside the Lines team's model is here to help, as it simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

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Saturday's pitching matchup features veteran Kevin Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA) taking the mound for Toronto against New York righty Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32). The 34-year-old Gausman has pitched four times against the Yankees this season, going 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA. He has been even better over his last three starts against New York, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA.

Gausman will face a Yankees ballclub that led the majors in home runs (274) and OPS (.787) in the regular season. But in the three-game wild card series against the Red Sox, New York hit just two home runs and had a .639 OPS. Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham were a combined 3-for-23 with zero RBI. 

Meanwhile, Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, missed the first four months of the season while recovering from a lat strain. Over his last nine starts he is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA. That includes a Sept. 6 start against the Blue Jays in which he limited Toronto to one run on three hits in six innings.

The Blue Jays are disciplined at the plate. They led all of baseball in both batting average (.265) and on-base percentage (.333). The team also averaged just 6.78 strikeouts per game, the second fewest in the majors.

Top sportsbooks have set both Giancarlo Stanton's total bases prop and Jazz Chisholm's total bases prop at 0.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Stanton Over 0.5 and Chishom Over 0.5 as 5-star plays on its 5-star scale.

Not surprisingly, Aaron Judge is the +230 favorite to hit a home run at FanDuel. He's followed by Stanton (+320), George Springer (+390), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+390) and Ben Rice (+390).

Check out the model's plays for Blue Jays vs. Yankees on Saturday:

NEW YORK YANKEES at TORONTO BLUE JAYS | 10/4 | 4:08 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Yankees +105
New York wins in 53.0% of simulations, bringing value at these odds

Run line
Pick: Yankees +1.5 (-205)
New York covers in 73.0% of simulations

Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-104)
The Over hits in 68.8% of simulations

Projected score: Yankees 5.1, Blue Jays 4.6