MLB picks: Mariners vs. Blue Jays ALCS Game 1 predictions, props, best bets for Sunday, Oct. 12
The ALCS kicks off with Game 1 in Toronto between the Mariners and Blue Jays on Sunday
The Seattle Mariners head north of the border for Game 1 of the American League Championship Series on Sunday when they take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Seattle needed 15 innings to beat the Detroit Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS on Friday to reach the franchise's first ALCS since 2001. The Blue Jays have been off since Wednesday after beating the New York Yankees in four games. First pitch is set for 8:03 p.m. ET, and the game will air on FOX.
Those interested in MLB betting and looking for the latest Mariners vs. Blue Jays odds, predictions and picks should check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. The model enters the second week of the 2025 MLB playoffs a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money line picks this season.
The Mariners' pitching depth will be tested out of the gate this series after using three different starting pitchers on Friday. That leaves Bryce Miller (4-6, 5.68 ERA) as the guy getting the nod for Game 1 against Kevin Gausman. Miller gave up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Tigers on Wednesday, while Gausman pitched 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball against New York last Saturday in Game 1. Miller's strikeout total at DraftKings Sportsbook is 2.5 (Over -102, Under -125) while Gausman's is 5.5 (Over -146, Under +114). The SportsLine Projection Model has Miller Over 2.5 strikeouts rated as a 5-star play on its 5-star scale with a projection of 4.6. It rates Gausman's Over as a 3.5-star play.
Cal Raleigh, who led MLB with 60 home runs in 2025, is the favorite to homer at DraftKings at +238, followed by Toronto ALDS hero Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +309. Next up are George Springer (+346), Daulton Varsho (+363), Addison Barger (+411), Julio Rodriguez (+436), Eugenio Suarez (+441), Anthony Santander (+444) and Jorge Polanco (+514).
The Blue Jays are -162 favorites (wager $162 to win $100) on the money line, per the latest SportsLine consensus odds for Game 1, while the Mariners are +135 (wager $100 to win $135) underdogs. The total is set at 8 runs. For the model's latest projections and expert picks for Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1, visit SportsLine.
Check out the model's best bets for Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 on Saturday.
SEATTLE MARINERS at TORONTO BLUE JAYS | 10/12 | 8:08 p.m. ET
Money line
Pick: Mariners +135
Seattle wins in 50% of simulations
Run line
Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-139)
Seattle covers in 71% of simulations
Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-116)
The Over hits in 51.1 % of simulations
Projected score: Seattle 4.6, Toronto 4.4
