MLB picks: Freddie Freeman among expert's best bets for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 4

Everyone good on sleep after Game 3 of the World Series went 18 innings on Monday? The Los Angeles Dodgers took the lengthy affair 6-5 thanks to first baseman Freddie Freeman blasting a game-clinching homer to center field to send Dodgers fans home happy and give Los Angeles both a 6-5 win and a 2-1 series edge over the Toronto Blue Jays. There's little turnaround time for Game 4, however, with the two teams meeting at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday. 

Tuesday features a very interesting pitching matchup with Shane Bieber starting for Toronto and Los Angeles turning to Shohei Ohtani. Bieber is making his fourth start of the postseason, where he has a 3.72 ERA. He pitched well in Game 3 of the ALCS, but he got rocked in the ALDS and lasted just 3 2/3 innings in Game 7 of the ALCS. Ohtani, who reached base a whopping nine times on Monday as a DH, has a 2.25 ERA in his two playoff starts on the mound, and he pitched six innings in each of those appearances. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has the Blue Jays covering +1.5 in 67% of simulations. For the model's latest projections and player prop recommendations, head to SportsLine.

If you're interested in MLB betting, you need to see what Angelo Magliocca, also known as "Amags," has lined up for Game 4 of the World Series. Magliocca, a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. Here's a look at his picks for Tuesday.

Best bets for Blue Jays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 4

What a thriller we got from these two teams in Game 3 last night, capped off with a solo home run in the bottom of the 18th inning by Freddie Freeman to give the Dodgers a 2-1 series lead. It was incredible to watch how the bullpens performed later in the game, and maybe a bit of a nod to the "Manfred Man" who we didn't see placed on second base in extra innings, likely helping push the game to the length we saw. Still, I like the rule of no free baserunner in extra innings. For playoff games with this much meaning, it makes sense to keep that rule in the regular season. I'm not so sure these two teams would agree, though, as they played into the early hours of the morning and have another game at 8 p.m. ET tonight. Rest and recovery is key here, but for these bullpens, there's no amount of rest that can prepare you to come back after a game of that length where each bullpen was pushed to the absolute brink of exhaustion. 

Tonight's matchup will revolve around which starting pitcher can perform better and last longer, as well as which bullpen has enough gas left in the tank. Relief innings will be at a premium here, and with the win last night, the Dodgers put themselves in a much better position to weather this storm. 

Daulton Varsho first at-bat strikeout (+135, BetMGM): 0.5u

Varsho has struck out twice in the first three games of this series so far, but tonight he faces Shohei Ohtani, who he's never seen before. And when looking for strikeouts vs. particular batters in this lineup, Varsho is really one of the only options. 

Ohtani has some really impressive stuff, so I wouldn't be surprised if he grabs strikeouts against a low-strikeout team, but at the same time, I'd rather not bet on him striking out seven batters when I can isolate the best overall strikeout option here at plus odds. I'll be playing this prop in both Varsho's first and second at-bats, meaning we only would need to hit one of those to be profitable because of the odds. 

Ohtani had superb underlying strikeout metrics against left--handed batters this year, and of late, things have only gotten better for him. He's struck out 13 of the 27 lefties he's faced this postseason, and he currently possesses a jaw-dropping 27% swinging strike rate in that time. The small sample size helps the numbers look crazy, but Ohtani has been nothing short of amazing, especially against lefties, and Varsho has the lowest odds on the board currently for 1+ strikeout in the game. Funny enough, Varsho has just one strikeout in 12 at-bats this postseason against left-handers, but 13 strikeouts in 45 at-bats against righties. For that season, he's running a near 30% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, giving me confidence in how this sets up. 

Freddie Freeman 1+ walks (+174, DraftKings): 0.5u

The Blue Jays will not soon forget what Freeman did to them last night, and when he starts to get locked in, there is no telling the type of damage he will do. After all the intentional walks for Ohtani last night, I think John Schneider turns some of the attention to Freeman here. If not, the Dodgers first baseman is still one of the best in baseball at working a count and getting on base via the free pass. 

There is so much money flowing into the Ohtani walk market today that maybe we're missing some value on guys like Freeman and Max Muncy.

Mookie Betts Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-132, DraftKings): 0.5u

The Dodgers won last night despite Mookie Betts. You read that correctly. Not only did he let us down by going just 1-8 in that 18-inning affair, but he also let his team down multiple times with men on base and in scoring position. There is nothing that helps a guy get right more than a quick turnaround and getting right back out on the field, so that's the angle we take here. 

Betts gets the benefit of being a right-handed hitter, something that Shane Bieber has struggled with. During the season, righties had 22 hits in 18 innings against him, with six of them being home runs. He also had less than a strikeout per inning. Both sides of the plate hit Bieber hard, but it was the right-handers that did the damage, while lefties hit a paltry .156 against him. We've seen a continuation of that in the postseason, as Bieber has given up nine hits in just four innings against righties, with two home runs and two walks. The Toronto right-hander has started three games this postseason, allowing six runs and 16 hits across 12 1/3 innings, and I don't have confidence things get much better for him here, after struggling to get 11 innings in his last start.