vladjr.jpg
Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners hope to grab a commanding 3-0 lead in the ALCS when they host the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 15. First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET on FS1. The Mariners are -130 favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus odds while the Blue Jays are +109 underdogs. The total comes in at 7.

If you're interested in MLB betting, you need to see what Angelo Magliocca, also known as "Amags," has lined up for Tuesday's contest. Magliocca, a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. Here's a look at his picks for Wednesday's Game 3.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 3 bets

  • Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105, DraftKings): 0.5u
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125, DraftKings): 0.5u
  • Mariners first 7 innings team total Over 2.5 runs (-130, DraftKings): 0.5u

Polanco has been great for Seattle in the heart of the order, and at this price I'm going to take a shot here even though he'll be on the home team side. I was loving betting on some of the M's bats in Toronto when they were on the away side, but I like taking a plus money shot here on Polanco even if he's on the home side now and could potentially miss out on the ninth inning at-bat. Over the last three games, Polanco has really turned up the heat by recording at least one hit in each game, with multiple hits in back-to-back games now against the Blue Jays. He's also driven in five runs across the first two games of this series and is looking like the potential ALCS MVP at the moment. Funny enough, he's been doing his damage off the bullpen, and with Shane Bieber likely yielding at least a few innings to the bullpen, this price is well worth me taking a shot. If you would rather just play the RBI at +188, I don't dislike that angle, but I'm going to keep it simple and ride the hot hand.

I wouldn't mind also betting on Guerrero Jr. to walk Wednesday, so we could grab a win if he is pitched around or walked intentionally. But I am finding some value on the Hits + Runs + RBI line here with George Kirby on the mound. When I dove into the numbers for Vlad Jr. against Kirby, I was surprised to see that he recorded a 95+ mph (hard hit) exit velocity in five of the six plate appearances they faced off last year. Kirby hasn't seen this lineup yet in 2025, and Vlad Jr. has been a non-factor so far in the first two games of the ALCS, so there are some caveats here that I don't love. But a guy having continued success hitting the ball hard off a pitcher is certainly interesting to me. Only one hit came of those six plate appearances, so take this info with a bit of caution, but if the Jays have any hope of getting back into this series, they have to get their bats going and it needs to start with guys like George Springer and Vlad Jr. Those guys may be in a tougher spot being right-handed and on the wrong side of Kirby's split, but righties have also hit him significantly harder, not only this year but of late.

Bieber looks rather vulnerable here against a Mariners offense that was fantastic in Toronto, scoring 13 total runs and racking up 17 hits. The bullpen has been putrid for Toronto while the Mariners' bullpen has been stellar, and even though I usually bet on the away teams for team totals, the first seven innings look is my way to go when betting this prop for a home team. We'll get to take this total down a run from the 3.5 line for the full game, and if the Mariners do end up winning with ease, the bottom of the ninth would be scrapped anyways. If the Mariners are batting in the bottom of the ninth, that would likely mean that the Blue Jays are using their closer Jeff Hoffman, so I generally go this direction when backing the home team on the Over for a team total.

Bieber produced a 4.57 expected ERA in a short 40-inning (seven starts) sample size this year, allowing 16 runs and eight homers in that time. The actual ERA was a full run less, and as you dive into the underlying stats, it becomes clear he wasn't all that good. Bieber was able to strand nearly 85% of baserunners, and the BABIP allowed was .245, both rather unsustainable figures over the long term. Bieber's fastball has been hit at nearly 95 mph exit velocity on average, which would qualify as a hard-hit ball each time a hitter makes contact. Maybe I would be more of a fan here if Bieber had some better underlying numbers, but at the same time, his only postseason start was rather terrible as well, giving me little confidence he's magically going to perform well here. The only thing I do see going his way is the Mariners' bats have not seen him since early last season, and it may take a couple at bats to get a feel against him. Even so, I'm willing to back the Mariners to score three runs here before we get out of the seventh, whether against Bieber or the bullpen that's allowed 10 hits and six runs across 8 1/3 innings of work in this series.