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Hello friends and welcome to the penultimate Friday in the Major League Baseball regular season. It's been such a fun month so far because a handful of races have gotten closer, including, shockingly, the AL Central. The Tigers once had a 14-game lead and it's down to 3 ½. And the Guardians have three head-to-head chances remaining against the Tigers. 

Let's use that as our jumping off point in bets. 

Lines courtesy of Caesars today. 

Guardians (-105) at Twins

At first glance, the Guardians starting Parker Messick against Pablo López sounds like a bad pitching matchup but that's why we get to bet this at close to even money. Remember, the Guardians beat Tarik Skubal on Thursday. This time around, the only have to deal with the lowly Twins. 

Those Twins have the second-worst record in baseball after the All-Star break and they're only a half-game better than the Rockies. The Twins are 4-12 this month. The Guardians, meanwhile, are on a rampage, having won 12 of their last 13. With a push like this toward the playoffs comes a swagger. They show up to the ballpark everyday believing they are going to win, no matter what. The Twins just show up. 

Also, just because he doesn't (yet?) have the name recognition, don't discount Messick. The rookie lefty has a 1.84 ERA through five starts with 22 strikeouts against only four walks. He's thrown really well in tough pitching environments like Arizona and Tampa. 

The Guardians stay hot and also hope the Braves take down the Tigers. 

Athletics (-110) at Pirates

Most of the time during mid-to-late September I'll avoid games between non-contenders because it's hard to get a read on how they'll play day-to-day, even more difficult then the usual ridiculously-high level of baseball unpredictability. The A's, though, feel like a pretty reliably good team at this point. They had a horrific stretch earlier in the season where they lost 24 of 27. That concluded June 4. They've gone 49-41 since then. They are 31-24 since the All-Star break, went 15-12 in August and are 9-6 in September so far. In their last two series, they swept the Reds and took two of three from the Red Sox in Fenway. 

They face the hapless Pirates Friday. 

Luis Severino takes the mound for the A's and he's been good on the road this season with a 3.11 ERA. The Pirates' offense is among the worst in baseball, too. 

On the other side, Mitch Keller goes for the Pirates, and he's been pretty mediocre (3-9, 4.17 ERA at home in 16 starts). The A's can hit, too. They are fourth in the majors in OPS since the All-Star break, trailing only the Blue Jays, Phillies and Brewers. 

Home run play: Cubs' Seiya Suzuki (+305)

Suzuki has been atrocious in the second half, hitting .202/.332/.272 with just two homers after the best first half of his career that should have earned him a spot in the All-Star Game. So what gives here? 

Well, first off, he's too good to keep hitting so poorly. Secondly, he doubled to break up Hunter Greene's no-hitter Thursday night. Sometimes that's all it takes, mentally, for a player of Suzuki's caliber to unlock things. 

More good news, the Cubs on Friday play in Cincy's Great American Ball Park again and that's a great home run park. Lefty Nick Lodolo is on the mound for the Reds. No hitter in the majors has seen Lodolo more than Suzuki, and he's 5 for 14 (.357) with three doubles and eight walks against him. He sees the ball really well against the lefty. It's a good spot for a home run to start turning things around. 

Futures play: Mariners win AL West (-140)

The Mariners and Astros are tied atop the AL West and face off against one another this weekend in Houston. I like the Mariners much better at this point and the following series for each sees the Astros face the A's on the road while the Mariners get the Rockies at home. I think the Mariners can wrap this thing up before the final series. 

As for Friday's game, the Astros might get this one, but I trust the Mariners after that, particularly for them to knock Framber Valdez around on Saturday.