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We haven't seen a back-to-back Cy Young winner since -- OK, it wasn't that long ago -- Jacob deGrom won the National League honors in 2018 and 2019. Max Scherzer also went back to back in 2016-17 while Clayton Kershaw did so in 2013-14 (making it three of four for him). This means there was a nine-year run where three pitchers won a combined seven of the annual awards.

That was all, however, on the National League side. In the American League, there hasn't been a back-to-back winner since Pedro Martínez in 1999 and 2000. 

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is looking to become a back-to-back AL Cy Young winner this season, but recently he's illustrated quite well how hard that is to pull this off. 

In his first three starts in August, Skubal had a 4.82 ERA. He was his dominant self on Aug. 19 and looked similar through six innings in Sacramento Monday night. He gave up a grand slam in the seventh, though. He ended up allowing six runs on seven hits across 6 ⅔ innings. Only one run was earned and he struck out 12 with zero walks, so no one should be saying that Skubal is falling apart or anything. He still has a 3.06 ERA in August and that's perfectly acceptable.

It's just that this recent down stretch has happened while Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet has looked, well, not down. Here at Awards Watch, that raises our antenna. 

If Skubal is starting to crack the door open a bit, is Crochet about to burst through and take that Cy Young that so many of us thought Skubal had locked down the last few months? 

Here are the numbers right now:

  • Skubal: 11-4, 2.28 ERA, 184 ERA+, 0.87 WHIP, 212 K, 25 BB, 166 IP, 5.8 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR
  • Crochet: 14-5, 2.38 ERA, 172 ERA+, 1.06 WHIP, 207 K, 42 BB, 166 ⅓ IP, 5.2 bWAR, 5.3 fWAR

Notably with the stinginess in allowing baserunners (WHIP) and the insane strikeout-to-walk rate, Skubal has a bit of separation here. It shouldn't be a question that he's the leader right now. It's reasonable, however, to believe that Crochet is within striking range, considering we've got a month-plus left to play. Even with Skubal in the lead, it isn't a blowout anymore. 

The current odds reflect as much. While no other pitcher is in striking distance, Skubal's at -125 while Crochet is sitting at +100, via BetMGM. It's really close.

It is difficult to look into the remaining schedule because there are so many variables. We'll try in just a second, but some of those variables: 

  • How soon will the Tigers cilnch the AL Central, and when they do, will they rest Skubal a few times or even just push a few of his starts back to give him extra rest before the playoffs? 
  • How concerned are the Red Sox about Crochet's workload? He missed all of 2022 due to injury, threw only 25 innings between the minors and majors in 2023 and worked 146 last season. He's already above last season's workload by more than 20 innings. And the Red Sox surely want to have him at full strength for the playoffs. Then again, they are fighting to make the postseason at all. It's a tough balance. 
  • Pushing back pitchers in the rotation can change which teams the starting pitcher face. 
  • We can't be sure how non-contenders will field their lineups late in the season. 

Still, we can try to take a look. If nothing changed moving forward (again, it will, but this is just a quick glance) with the rotations, here's how things would line up.

Skubal possible remaining schedule: at Royals, vs. White Sox, at Marlins, vs. Guardians, at Guardians

Crochet possible remaining schedule: at Orioles, vs. Guardians, at Athletics, vs. Yankees, at Rays, vs. Tigers

The two biggest takeaways there show us one in favor of each pitcher. First off, Crochet has an extra start, giving him the chance to build up those counting stats and carve into Skubal's lead here. 

The second one, however, is that -- just eyeballing it! -- Crochet seems to have a much tougher remaining schedule. The Orioles are a good offensive team at home, the Rays play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and the A's are a combination of the two. The Guardians offense isn't scary, but the Yankees and Tigers are. On Skubal's end, seeing the Guardians twice along with the White Sox and Marlins looks pretty soft. And while the Royals have hit well recently, they rank 27th in runs scored this year.

Things can change and if either pitcher tires down the stretch, the other could take a commanding lead. It's going to be fun to watch it unfold. Skubal has a leg up and is looking to become the first back-to-back Cy Young winner in the AL since Prime Pedro, but he hasn't totally shaken Crochet from his tail just yet.