How MLB tiebreakers could swing each division, wild-card race and first-round bye in 2025 playoff chase

With several playoff spots still up for grabs across Major League Baseball, it's worth recalling how the league breaks ties in the standings and what it means for the current field of contenders. 

Alas and alack, there are no tiebreaker games anymore, and that means we now resort to other means to decide who prevails when there's a tie in standings. Nowadays, ties are resolved in the following manner when it comes to deciding postseason berths and seeding: 

1. Head-to-head record.
2. Intradivision record (i.e., record within the same division).
3. Interdivision record (i.e, record against teams outside the division).
4. Record in the last 81 intraleague games (i.e., record against teams in the same league).
5. Record in the last 82 intraleague games, plus one until the tie is broken.
6. This almost always comes down to the head-to-head record between the teams of note

Almost always, the head-to-head record does the trick, and that's the focus of this piece. One way to think about this is that the team that clinches the season series against a fellow contender is, in essence, one game better off than the standings tell you. That's because all they need to do is tie the team over which they hold the tiebreaker in order to best them, whether it's for the division crown, wild card spot, or seeding. For instance, if a team trails another by two games but has clinched the head-to-head season series, then all they need to do is make up those two games for a tie in the standings rather than establish an outright lead. You get the idea. Now, let's go race by race to see where the tiebreakers stand for the 2025 season thus far, as we get primed for September. 

AL East

The Blue Jays have a modest lead over both the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East, and they also win the hypothetical tiebreaker over those two competitors. Intra-divisional opponents play 13 times during the regular season, and the Jays have seven wins each against the Red Sox and Yankees. As such, if the Jays wind up in a first-place tie, they're going to win the division. 

AL Central

Nothing to see here. The Tigers have a huge lead over the middling remainder of the AL Central, and they've clinched the season series over the second-place Royals. As for the third-place Guardians, the Tigers are 4-3 in the season series with six head-to-heads remaining. Likely, though, none of that will matter. 

AL West

This division is very much in play and could come down to a photo finish between the first-place Astros and second-place Mariners. Adding to the intrigue is that the season series is a 5-5 deadlock. This applies another layer of implications to the final Mariners-Astros series of the regular season, which gets underway on Sept. 19 in Houston. That series was already potentially critical, given the tight margins at the top of the standings, and now we know that the winner of that series will also claim the potential tiebreaker. 

AL wild card

To make this as easy as possible, let's first have a look at the current wild card standings in the American League: 

Given that the Red Sox and Yankees have a bit of a cushion between themselves and those not in playoff position, let's focus on the Mariners and those within five games of the third and final AL wild card berth: 

• The Mariners' season series with the Royals is tied 2-2. A three-game set in Seattle, starting on Sept. 16, will settle that particular issue. 
• The Mariners went 10-3 against the Rangers this season, so they hold that tiebreaker. 
• The Mariners are up 3-0 over the Guardians this season. They play a three-game set in Cleveland starting Friday, and if the M's are able to win one of those three, they'll clinch the season series. 

And if the Mariners fall apart and we wind up needing a tiebreaker between two teams currently on the outside looking in?

• The Royals hold the tiebreaker over the Rangers. 
• The Rangers are up 3-0 on the Guardians. They'll end the regular season with a three-game set in Cleveland, and one win gives them the season series. 
• The Guardians are up 5-4 over the Royals. Those two teams play a four-game series in Cleveland starting Sept. 8.  

NL East

With the Mets' 13-3 win over the first-place Phillies on Monday, they clinched the season series. Yes, the Mets face a substantial five-game deficit and thus fairly long odds in the NL East, but if they can manage to tie Philly by Game 162, then they'll be division champs. 

NL Central

The Cubs and Brewers have wrapped up their season series, and Chicago took seven of their 13 head-to-head games. That means the task of mounting a comeback at the expense of the best team in baseball thus far is slightly easier. That's because the Cubs hold that tiebreaker. On the downside from the Cubs' standpoint, they don't get any more head-to-head cracks against the first-place Brewers. 

NL West

The Dodgers own what is arguably the best current rivalry in MLB. They've won nine of 13 games against the second-place Padres this season, and thus they hold the tiebreaker -- a tiebreaker that may wind up mattering given the close race out west. Thanks to their grip on the tiebreaker, the Dodgers' one-game lead over San Diego is essentially two games. L.A. is angling to win the division for the 12th time in the last 13 years. The Padres, meanwhile, are trying to win the West for the first time since 2006. 

NL wild card 

Here are the current National League wild card standings: 

Again, we'll focus on that third spot, which is between the Mets and Reds. The Reds hold a 2-1 lead in head-to-head games this season, and the two teams will meet again for three games starting Sept. 5 in Cincy. 

First-round byes 

The most important aspect of playoff seeding in MLB is found at the very top. The two division winners with the best record in each league are rewarded a bye through the Wild Card Series and straight into the Division Series. Suffice it to say, this is a huge advantage and provides a heavy incentive for the best teams to keep foot on the gas down the stretch. 

In the AL, we'll proceed from the assumption that the Blue Jays and Tigers win the East and Central, respectively. Those two teams are also highly likely to claim the two byes in the AL bracket, as the Astros -- current leaders of the AL West -- are well behind them. And if things tighten up? Regard: 

• The Tigers won the season series over the Astros. 
• The Astros and Blue Jays still have three games to play against each other, but the Astros are up 3-0 in the season series thus far. 
• As noted above, the Mariners are still very much alive in the NL West. And what if they wind up winning the division and also make up ground on the Blue Jays and or Tigers? They won the season series against Detroit but lost it to Toronto. 

Over in the NL, the Brewers will likely claim one of the two byes, and the second one will thus be between the NL East champion (presumably the Phillies) and the NL West champion (the Dodgers or Padres). On that note … 

• The Phillies have won the season series of the Dodgers and Padres (they went 5-`1 against each NL East power). 
• As for the Mets, they win a hypothetical tiebreaker with the Padres, but they lose it to the Dodgers. 

Got all that? Sure you do.