How Juan Soto turned in one of his best MLB seasons ever after a disappointing start to $765M Mets contract
Even as the Mets threaten to collapse, Soto has turned into a power-speed threat like he's never been before
By
Matt Snyder
•
4 min read
The New York Mets might end up missing the playoffs. At best, they're threatening to do so. After Tuesday's win, along with some help from the Pirates, they took back a one-game lead over the Reds for the third National League wild card spot, but they certainly aren't out of the woods here. On a team level, missing the postseason would be a disaster of an outcome given the huge offseason they had, their payroll (over $340 million, second in MLB behind the Dodgers), their NLCS berth last season and, most importantly, the fact that they had the best record in baseball through June 12.
As part of a big Mets offseason, one perhaps recalls that they signed Juan Soto to a record 15-year, $765 million contract. With that kind of deal and this kind of collapse, the mindless, knee-jerk take would be to somehow blame Soto. It would be totally foolish, but that comes with the territory sometimes.
The thing is, Soto is having an outstanding season and it's one of the better and more well-rounded seasons of his career. There's only so much one man can do in baseball and Soto has operated on a very high level this season.
Soto is hitting .267/.399/.532 (164 OPS+) with 20 doubles, a triple, 42 home runs, 104 RBI, 118 runs, 36 stolen bases and 6.4 WAR. Excluding the partial 2020 season, this is his third-best OPS+ and it's his third-highest WAR. He's set a career high in home runs and isn't far off his career highs in RBI and runs. He leads the National League in OBP. I'm sure some would scoff at the batting average, but the league average is .246 so he's clear of that by 21 points. We'll get to the stolen bases soon, but he has more this season than 2021-24 combined.
Soto sits third in the NL in Baseball Reference's WAR and he's fifth in FanGraphs' version. Shohei Ohtani is all but guaranteed to win the National League MVP award, but Soto (+2500, per DraftKings) has been one of the best in the league.
You can't make the "Soto isn't a winner" argument either. Soto won the World Series with the 2019 Nationals, advanced to the NLCS with the 2022 Padres and got back to the World Series with the 2024 Yankees. Even if these people think there's some sort of winner's gene, Soto has shown plenty of times from this point of view that he has it.
And in 2025, he's been one of the most valuable players in the league.
Sure, Soto did start the season slow and it's possible the pressure of the contract had something to do with it. It's also possible it was just a bad stretch. They happen. He was hitting .229/.367/.430 through June 5. The Mets were winning then, though, and Soto has been one of the biggest offensive forces in baseball since, slashing .293/.421/.600 with 31 home runs in 93 games.
Anyway, let's get back to those stolen bases. Soto leads the Mets. Yes, he's stolen more bases than Francisco Lindor. In fact, Soto had never previously stolen more than 12 bases in a season and he only had seven last year, yet he trails only five players in stolen bases in the majors this season.
He's 36 of 40 in stolen base attempts, too, so his success rate is an excellent 90% compared to a league average of 77.7%. He's increased his attempted steals as the season has progressed and he's gotten more comfortable running. He was just 2 for 2 by the end of April, went 5 for 5 in May, 2 for 3 in June and then things started to pick up. Soto went 6 for 6 in July, a whopping 11 for 11 in August and so far is 10 for 13 in September.
"Definitely, a lot of hard work was put in since the beginning of the season," Soto said, via MLB.com, of his increased aggression on the bases this season. "[First-base coach] Antoan [Richardson] has done an unbelievable job. He's been helping me since Day 1. So I give him all the credit. He's the one who put me in this situation and in this spot to do what I've done."
As noted, Soto also has set a new career high with 42 home runs. Along with his newfound stolen base prowess, he's getting up into rarified air on the list of power-speed combo guys in MLB history.
Soto now has one of just 76 30-30 seasons in MLB history, though those are becoming more common with the new stolen base rules. There were four in 2023, three last season and four so far this year. Still, Soto has joined Darryl Strawberry, Howard Johnson (three times), David Wright and Lindor as the only Mets to ever have a 30-30 season.
But Soto doesn't just have a mere 30 home runs and 30 steals. There have only been 16 40-30 seasons -- that is, 40 home runs and 30 steals -- to date from 13 players: Henry Aaron, Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds (twice), Ellis Burks, Jeff Bagwell (twice), Larry Walker, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Braun, Ronald Acuña Jr. (twice), Christian Yelich, Shohei Ohtani and Soto.
What if we adjust the parameters to 40-35? I know people don't really do that because we like nice, round numbers, but Soto is joined only by Canseco, Bonds (twice), A-Rod, Soriano, Acuña (twice) and Ohtani there.
This been a remarkable season for Juan Soto. That the Mets' playoff spot is in jeopardy is an indictment of the rest of the team, not him.
