Guardians vs. Rays live updates: ALCS resumes with Game 4 as Cleveland looks for 3-1 series lead

This is Nick Martinez's fifth season back from Japan and it was his best: 3.10 ERA in a career high 180 innings. He has six pitches but leans most on his fastball, cutter, and changeup. Martinez doesn't miss many bats but his changeup has a unique movement profile and it generates an awful lot of weak contact. He faced the Guardians twice this season and dominated them both times:

The April 28 game was in Cleveland. Thanks to his changeup, Martinez has better numbers against lefties, and the Guardians have eight lefties and switch-hitters in their Game 4 lineup. I wonder if any of the switch-hitters will bat right-handed against him? Hmmm.

The Guardians are looking to take a 3-1 lead tonight and, historically, teams with a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 85% of the time. The last team to come back from 3-1 was the Dodgers against the Braves in the 2020 NLCS. That series had no off-days. It was seven games in seven days and it allowed L.A.'s depth to really shine. The last team in a non-COVID season to come back from 3-1 was the Cubs in 2016 World Series.

If the Rays win Game 4, the series becomes a best-of-three. If the Guardians win, it's not over, but they're in excellent position to go to the World Series for the first time since that 2016 season.

The Golden Sombrero in Game 3 dropped Rays star and MVP candidate Junior Caminero to 5 for 21 (.238) with nine strikeouts in six games this postseason. Two of the five hits came in one game too. Caminero has struck out seven times in 11 at-bats in the ALCS. It seems like no one on the Rays is hitting -- they've slashed .197/.249/.314 as a team this postseason -- but Caminero's struggles stand out. Tampa badly needs him to get going at the plate.

Small market teams are always at a disadvantage when it comes to building a dynasty because they can't paper over mistakes with money like big market teams, but the Guardians and Rays are both extremely well run. They're candidates to become baseball's next superteam, if the Dodgers start to backslide.

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Mike Axisa

Not surprisingly, both teams are using the same lineup they were planning to start last night, before the rainout. Here are the visiting Rays:

1. DH Yandy Díaz, RHB
2. 1B Jonathan Aranda, LHB
3. LF Chandler Simpson, LHB
4. 3B Junior Caminero, RHB
5. C Liam Hicks, LHB
6. RF Victor Mesa Jr., LHB
7. CF Jonny DeLuca, RHB
8. 2B Richie Palacios, LHB
9. SS Taylor Walls, RHB

SP Nick Martinez, RHP

Simpson, a speed guy with zero career outside-the-park homers, is certainly an unconventional No. 3 hitter. He's batting third to get an extra lefty near the top of the lineup, per manager Kevin Cash. Now here are the home Guardians:

1. LF Steven Kwan, LHB
2. 3B José Ramírez, SHB
3. RF Chase De Lauter, LHB
4. DH Jo Adell, RHB
5. 1B Nathaniel Lowe, LHB
6. 2B Travis Bazzana, LHB
7. C Patrick Bailey, SHB
8. CF Petey Halpin, LHB
9. SS Brayan Rocchio, SHB

SP Shawn Armstrong, RHB

Armstrong is an opener and may only face 3-4 batters. Game 1 starter Foster Griffin can pitch on normal rest today thanks to the rainout, so he may follow Armstrong. Joey Cantillo, a lefty like Griffin, is another option. These two teams will potentially play four games in the next four days. That will change their bullpen strategies.