Free MLB home run picks, odds for September 9: Yordan Alvarez among best bets for Tuesday HR player props

Since bursting onto the scene to win AL Rookie of the Year honors in just over half a season in 2019, Yordan Alvarez has been widely considered one of the game's most dangerous lefty power-hitters. However, injuries have limited Alvarez to 41 games so far in 2025, and he's only hit six home runs entering play on Tuesday night. Two of those homers did come in a three-game stretch last week, and he's posted five multi-hit games since Aug. 30. Despite clear evidence that Alvarez is heating up, you can find him for as high as +425 in the MLB home run odds on Tuesday.

With Houston taking on Toronto at 7:07 p.m. ET today, he's one of our top MLB HR picks. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $300 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 57.25 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Daulton Varsho (+340) and Manny Machado (+350) to homer on Wednesday, Kyle Manzardo (+420) on Thursday and Colson Montgomery (+575) on Friday. It has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, September 9:

• Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+425)
• Junior Caminero, Rays (+350) 
  
• Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+285)
• Parlay these picks for +8169 odds at DraftKings (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/9

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+425, BetMGM)

Alvarez looks fully back from injury, with three 3-hit games over his last five played. Interestingly, he's been slightly better against LHPs than RHPs this season, despite being a left-handed hitter—though his career OPS splits are fairly even. Shane Bieber has dominated left-handed batters, but the sample size is just three games. Alvarez is 1-2 in his career against Bieber. We set Alvarez's line at +315 to homer, and you can get this price as well as up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first wager loses when using the latest BetMGM bonus code:

Junior Caminero, Rays (+350, DraftKings)

Caminero is hitting just .198 on the road this season, but he's still managed 19 HRs in 65 road games. He's also hit 30 of his 41 HRs against RHPs. White Sox SP Yoendrys Gomez has been solid recently, but he doesn't go deep into games, and the bullpen behind him is vulnerable. We set Caminero's line at +230 to homer. Use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 in bonus bets instantly as well as over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket here:

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+285, FanDuel)

Kurtz has an OPS approaching 1.200 against RHPs this season, which gives us value even at +300. Dustin May has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing an .852 OPS and 15 HRs to them this season. He's also had trouble on the road, giving up 12 HRs in 11 starts. Given the favorable splits, we set Kurtz's line at +270 to homer. Bet this prop with the latest FanDuel promo code and get $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5+ wins:

Where to bet MLB props on Tuesday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Tuesday: 

More MLB picks for Tuesday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on a 68-47 roll (+1507.5) on MLB picks.