Free MLB home run picks, odds for Sept. 18: Aaron Judge among best bets for Thursday HR player props

Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has become such an inevitability that the juice is rarely worth the squeeze when you're making MLB home run bets. However, on occasion, the matchup aligns just right and the price is at a point where you can justify taking a proverbial swing. Judge has hit 48 home runs in 142 games this season and is the frontrunner to win AL MVP honors for a third time, despite an incredible season from Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. He's also got an incredible matchup on Thursday against Orioles lefty Cade Povich and is priced as high as +240 in the MLB home run odds.

That's why he's one of our top MLB HR picks tonight with Yankees vs. Orioles starting at 7:10 p.m. ET. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 30.25 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season, calling two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 18:

• Aaron Judge, Yankees (+240)
• Jo Adell, Angels (+554)
• Riley Greene, Tigers (+475)
• Parlay these picks for +8697 odds at DraftKings (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/18

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+240, BetMGM)

Judge is homering in nearly 50% of our simulations. He's 2-for-6 in his career against Cade Povich, and both hits were home runs. He also has 3 walks and 0 strikeouts against Povich. Judge has a 1.263 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, while Povich has allowed an .884 OPS and 13 HRs in 12 home starts. We set the line at +130 for Judge to homer, and you can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.  

Jo Adell, Angels (+554, DraftKings)

When Adell makes contact, he hits the ball incredibly hard. Over his last 13 games, he has 7 hitless games, but in each of the 6 games where he recorded a hit, he hit a home run. Adell has 2 career plate appearances vs. Quinn Priester, and what's encouraging is that he put the ball in play both times and is 1-for-2 with a single. Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Priester is slightly worse against right-handed bats than left-handed bats. We set the line at +390 for Adell to homer, and you can bet this prop at DraftKings to get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

Riley Greene, Tigers (+475, BetMGM)

Tanner Bibee has struggled to keep the ball in the park when pitching on the road this season, allowing 19 HRs in 16 road starts. Greene has hit 31 of his 34 HRs this season against right-handed pitchers. While he doesn't have a HR against Bibee yet, he is a solid 5-for-18 against him. We set the line at +390 for Greene to homer, and BetMGM once again has the best price:

Where to bet MLB props on Thursday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday: 

More MLB picks for Thursday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on a 76-50 roll (+1780) on MLB picks.