Free MLB home run picks, odds for Oct. 9: William Contreras among best bets for Thursday HR player props

The 2025 MLB Playoffs continue on Thursday with two Game 4 NLDS matchups, as the Dodgers host the Phillies at 6:08 p.m. ET and the Cubs host the Brewers at 9:08 p.m. ET. Timely hitting is always a crux of postseason play, and Brewers catcher William Contreras delivered in a big spot earlier this series, hitting a 411-foot solo shot to put the Brewers ahead in Game 2. Milwaukee never looked back and has another shot to close out the series, with Contreras drawing a juicy matchup against Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd.

With Contreras priced as high as +610 in the MLB home run odds, we're making him one of our top MLB HR picks for Thursday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 28.44 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and also nailed two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, October 9:

• William Contreras, Brewers (+610)
• Tommy Edman, Dodgers (+750)
• Parlay these picks for +5850 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets and Prop Picks 10/9

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

William Contreras, Brewers (+610, DraftKings)

This is another longshot play, but this is the best HR value in CHC-MIL tonight. The weather is going to be pitcher-friendly like it was yesterday, but there were still several HRs hit in yesterday's game. Contreras is 5-10 with a HR and 0 Ks in his career against Matthew Boyd. When factoring in the weather, we set Contreras' line at +540 to hit a homer today. You can bet this prop at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on a winning $5 bet:

Tommy Edman, Dodgers (+750, FanDuel)

Edman homered yesterday against the Phillies, and we have longshot value on him to go deep again today. Edman is a solid 4-13 in his career against Cristopher Sanchez, but what's more impressive is that he has 0 Ks in those 13 ABs. Edman has 7 HRs in 33 games when the opposing starter is a lefty (despite hitting just .180 in those games) compared to 6 HRs in 64 games when the opposing starter is a righty. We set the line at +650 for Edman to homer. Use the latest FanDuel promo code and get $300 in bonus bets instantly on a winning $5 bet:

Where to bet MLB props on Thursday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday: 

More MLB picks for Thursday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 88-64-1 roll (+1738.5) on MLB picks.