Free MLB home run picks, odds for Oct. 4: Daulton Varsho is the best bet for Saturday HR player props

The MLB Divisional Round begins on Saturday with a four-game slate, including the No. 1 seed Toronto Blue Jays vs. No. 4 seed New York Yankees in the American League Division Series at 4:08 p.m. ET. Toronto has home-field advantage and also has a rest advantage after getting a bye for winning the AL East. Outfielder Daulton Varsho was responsible for part of Toronto's success this season, batting .238 with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs. He homered five times in September and is facing Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil, who was left off New York's wild-card roster. 

Varsho is still available at +435 odds, which is a valuable price to target. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 29.44 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after calling Colson Montgomery (+392) and Hunter Goodman (+492) to homer last Saturday. It also nailed two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

MLB Best Home Run Bets and Prop Picks 10/4

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays (+435, DraftKings)

Varsho is 0-4 in his career against Luis Gil, but he has 3 walks and zero strikeouts against Gil, indicating he sees the ball somewhat well against him. Varsho is also +170 on Caesars to record a walk, so perhaps an approach is to take him to both homer and walk at plus odds and hope one hits. Luis Gil doesn't have a high HR allowed rate, but lefties are more successful against Gil than righties are against Gil. We set Varsho's line at +350 to homer. You can bet this prop at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on a winning $5 bet:

Where to bet MLB props on Saturday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Saturday: 

More MLB picks for Saturday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 86-63-1 roll (+1679) on MLB picks.