Free MLB home run picks, odds for Oct. 2: Giancarlo Stanton is the best bet for Thursday HR player props

Despite only playing in 77 games this season, Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton belted 24 homers during the regular season, and he continues to be one of the most prolific power hitters in baseball when healthy. That has extended into the MLB postseason, where Stanton has hit 18 career home runs, including seven in 14 games during last year's playoffs. Now Stanton and the Yankees will play a winner-take-all Game 3 at Yankee Stadium against the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card round of the 2025 MLB Playoffs, and he's our top MLB home run picks for Thursday.

You can still find Stanton priced as high as +400 in the MLB HR odds, and that's a price you'll want to take advantage of. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 32.44 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after calling Vinnie Pasquantino (+455) and Francisco Lindor (+420) to homer last Thursday and Colson Montgomery (+500) on Friday and (+392) Saturday, and then Hunter Goodman (+492) as well on Saturday. It also nailed two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

MLB Best Home Run Bets and Prop Picks 10/2

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (+400, DraftKings)

Stanton has struggled in his first two games this postseason, but he has strong career playoff numbers and was swinging a hot bat before this series. Stanton has 18 HRs in 43 career postseason games. Red Sox SP Connelly Early hasn't allowed a HR in his first 4 starts, and the weather in NY is pitcher friendly, but Stanton has a .951 career OPS against left-handed pitchers, and the weather doesn't matter much if Stanton connects with the ball. DK is offering +400, which is a strong price compared to the +323 consensus odds. We set the line around +330 when factoring in the weather. You can bet this prop at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on a winning $5 bet:

Where to bet MLB props on Thursday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday: 

More MLB picks for Thursday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 86-63-1 roll (+1679) on MLB picks.