Free MLB home run picks, odds for August 22: Ketel Marte among best bets for Friday HR player props

The Arizona Diamondbacks bounced back from a four-game losing streak with a pair of wins over the Guardians earlier this week, but they need to rattle off a long winning streak to get back into the playoff conversation. Their next opportunity comes on Friday night against the Cincinnati Reds, who are sending pitcher Zack Littell to the mound. He has allowed 27 home runs this season, which is tied for the second-most in the MLB. Several Arizona players will be looking to take advantage of that weakness, including second baseman Ketel Marte, who has 23 homers and is +500 to go yard in the Friday MLB odds.  

Marte is one player that SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is targeting with their MLB HR bets on Friday night. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 55.9 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Eugenio Suarez (+400) to homer on Wednesday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog and also see the model's MLB picks for Phillies vs. Nationals. 

Best MLB home run picks for Friday, August 22:

• Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+440)
• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+500)
• Matt Wallner, Twins (+390)
• Parlay these picks for +12625 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/22

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Seiya Suzuki, Cubs (+440, FanDuel)

Suzuki has struggled in August, but we're taking a "he's due" approach here. He has just 1 HR in 19 games this month despite hitting 26 home runs in the months prior. While a starting pitcher hasn't been officially announced for the Angels, the probable pitcher is Tyler Anderson. Suzuki has a .903 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season and has been better on the road (.854 OPS) than at home (.762 OPS). We set Suzuki's line close to +300 to homer. You can bet this prop using the latest FanDuel promo code, where new users can get $300 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins:

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+500, BetMGM)

Marte has crushed the ball when hitting from the left side, batting .311 with a .998 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. Zack Littell hasn't allowed a HR in his last two starts, but he's tied for second in the majors with 27 HRs allowed this season. Notably, 19 of those HRs have come in 14 road starts. We set Marte's line at +330 to homer. Use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses:

Matt Wallner, Twins (+390, FanDuel)

When Wallner makes contact, he hits the ball very far—but he also has a strikeout rate near 30%. He's facing Aaron Civale today, who isn't a high strikeout pitcher, which improves Wallner's chances of making contact. Civale has a 6.25 ERA at home compared to a 3.97 ERA on the road this season. Our model likes this spot for Wallner, and we would set his line to homer around +360, making this a strong play with the listed price at FanDuel:

Where to bet MLB props on Friday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Friday: 

More MLB picks for Friday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Bruce Marshall, who is on a 106-100-2 roll (+1401) on MLB picks.