Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction, odds, time: 2025 MLB playoff betting picks for ALCS Game 4 by proven model
SportsLine's model simulated Toronto vs. Seattle 10,000 times and revealed its MLB picks for Thursday's American League Championship Series Game 4 matchup at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to draw even at 2-2 in their best-of-seven series when they take on the Seattle Mariners in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series on Thursday. After losing both games in Toronto, the Blue Jays kept the home team winless in the series with a 13-4 win on Wednesday. The Blue Jays (94-68), the top seed in the American League, are 42-42 on the road in 2025, including the postseason. The Mariners (90-72), the third seed, are 53-32 on their home field. Luis Castillo will start for the Seattle, opposed by Max Scherzer of Toronto.
First pitch from T-Mobile Park in Seattle is set for 8:33 p.m. ET. The teams have split the past eight meetings. Seattle is a -121 favorite on the money line (risk $121 to win $100) in the latest Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 7.5. Before making any Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the ALCS and NLCS rounds of the 2025 MLB playoffs a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks this season. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Blue Jays vs. Mariners and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Mariners vs. Blue Jays:
Blue Jays vs. Mariners money line | Seattle -121, Toronto +101 |
Blue Jays vs. Mariners over/under | 7.5 runs |
Blue Jays vs. Mariners run line | Seattle -1.5 (+171) |
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks | |
Blue Jays vs. Mariners streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
Why the Mariners can win
Right-hander Luis Castillo (11-8, 3.54 ERA) is expected to get the start for Seattle. In 32 starts during the regular season, he logged 180.2 innings, allowing 168 hits, 71 earned runs and 46 walks, while striking out 162 for a WHIP of 1.18. He earned the win in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers, pitching the final 1.1 innings with one strikeout in the 3-2 15-inning triumph. He allowed one hit and four walks with three strikeouts in 4.2 innings in Game 2 of the ALDS, receiving a no-decision in a 3-2 Seattle win.
Center fielder Julio Rodriguez is among the Mariners' top hitters. In 160 regular-season games, he batted .267 with 31 doubles, four triples, 32 homers, 95 RBI, 30 stolen bases and 106 runs scored. In eight postseason games, he is hitting .242 with one double, three homers and eight RBI. In Wednesday's loss to the Blue Jays, he was 2-for-4 with a homer and two RBI. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Blue Jays can win
The Blue Jays are expected to send veteran right-hander Max Scherzer (5-5, 5.19 ERA) to the mound. In 17 regular season starts, Scherzer pitched 85 innings, allowing 87 hits, 49 earned runs and 23 walks with 82 strikeouts. He has yet to pitch in this year's postseason. In 23 career postseason games, Scherzer has a 5-7 record with a 3.76 ERA, pitching 110 innings, allowing 82 hits, 46 earned runs and 43 walks with 131 strikeouts.
Among Toronto's top bats is first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. During the regular season, he hit .292 with 34 doubles, 23 homers and 84 RBI in 156 games. In seven postseason games this year, he is hitting .464 with two doubles, four homers and 10 RBI. He was on fire in Wednesday's win over Seattle, going 4-for-4 with two doubles, one homer and one RBI with three runs scored. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.6 combined runs. It says one side of the money line has all of the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's MLB picks.
So who wins Mariners vs. Blue Jays, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
