Blue Jays-Brewers MLB pick: It's Patrick Corbin Day, and Toronto might have to allow lefty to get hit hard

Thursday might be my favorite MLB day of the week because it's usually a getaway day for many clubs, and that means many matinees so teams can travel home sooner and not be at a disadvantage for a series opener Friday. There are seven games today scheduled before 6:10 ET, and I'm focusing on Toronto at Milwaukee simply because of Blue Jays starting pitcher Patrick Corbin. It's a 1:40 p.m. ET first pitch from hitter-friendly American Family Field. 

Bet365 Jays-Brewers prop pick (-110)

• Patrick Corbin Over 2.5 earned runs allowed

If you happen to be new to betting on Major League Baseball, "Patrick Corbin Day" is a colloquial term used by gamblers to fade both Corbin personally and whichever team he's playing for in that given day. It's a bit harsh because the 36-year-old southpaw has had a fine MLB career and probably made $150 million or so.

Corbin had a solid rookie campaign in 2012 with Arizona and was a pretty good pitcher for the most part through 2019, his first season of a six-year, $140 million contract with the Nationals. Not sure they win their only World Series in franchise history that '19 season without Corbin, who was the only lefty in a rotation led by Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer and finished 11th in the NL Cy Young voting. In Game 7 of the Fall Classic, Corbin fired three shutout innings in relief of Scherzer.

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In fact, Corbin was one of only five pitchers in the majors to compile at least 10.0 fWAR between 2018 and 2019, trailing only four Cy Young Award winers in Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole.

But for whatever reason, Corbin massively regressed in the 2020 COVID campaign and it has mostly been downhill since, with "Patrick Corbin Day" originating in 2021 when he was 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA. But it became truly a part of the betting lexicon from 2022-24 when he totaled 47 losses with an ERA around 6.00. Corbin led all pitchers in earned runs surrendered in 2021, '22 and '24 and gave up the most hits in baseball in 2020, '22 and '24.

Kudos to Corbin because he never missed a start, he kept going out there and getting his brains beaten in. He has been durable in his career and ranks fifth among active MLB pitchers in career innings. In 2025, Corbin played for Texas and was slightly better at 7-11 with a 4.40 ERA but you would have lost about $250 if you had wagered $100 on the Rangers to win each of his starts.

Toronto came out of spring camp ravaged by injury in the rotation with the likes of Jose Berrios, Shane Bieber and one-time AL Rookie of the Year favorite Trey Yesavage all opening on the injured list and still there. So the Jays signed Corbin to a one-year, $1 million deal about a week into the season.

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Well, it was more of the same issues with Corbin in his Toronto debut last Friday as he was raked for four runs and six hits (two homers) while hitting two batters over four innings, and he was lucky to get a no-decision. In his career against the Brewers, Corbin is 4-7 with a 4.72 ERA in 74.1 innings. But only a few active Milwaukee batters have faced him.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Corbin for 5.5 innings pitched today, 5.0 hits allowed, 2.7 earned runs, 4.3 strikeouts and 1.7 walks. Bet365 has him at Over/Under 15.5 outs, 4.5 hits, 2.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts and 1.5 walks. He is +220 for the win and -290 for No.

You might want to take advantage of fading Corbin now, because he might not be starting much longer with both Berrios and Yesavage on rehab assignments and close to their season debuts.

Today's Milwaukee starting pitcher, Brandon Sproat (0-1, 10.45), isn't exactly Roger Clemens himself, but he might follow an opener as he has twice in three outings this year. The 25-year-old righty was 0-2 with a 4.79 ERA in four starts last year as a rookie but still kept rookie status. Sproat hasn't faced Toronto. 

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I actually don't like the Milwaukee lineup that much right now with it missing former NL MVP Christian Yelich and others on the injury list. But the Toronto bullpen is pretty taxed so the team likely will ask Corbin to provide some length if at all possible in a getaway game. The longer Corbin goes, the more likely he gives up a three-run homer. Might happen B1.