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The race for American League MVP for a while seemed like a foregone conclusion. Unless Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge suffered a significant injury, the award was likely his. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh just won't go away, though, so what we're left with is a potentially amazing two-man race for the hardware. 

The odds right now show only Judge and Raleigh shorter than +10000 (Bobby Witt Jr., José Ramírez and Tarik Skubal), so there isn't really any reason to discuss anyone else. 

Here's how it looks between the serious contenders, with odds via BetMGM.

The odds 

  • Judge -155
  • Raleigh +115

The numbers 

  • Judge: .337/.448/.693, 210 OPS+, 24 2B, 2 3B, 38 HR, 88 RBI, 94 R, 6 SB, 6.7 WAR
  • Raleigh: .245/.351/.587, 165 OPS+, 16 2B, 45 HR, 98 RBI, 78 R, 13 SB, 5.2 WAR

The argument for Judge

He's the best player. 

For as much as some people like to contort themselves into a pretzel in search of "value," the easy argument is that the most valuable player is the best player. Judge is obliterating Raleigh in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, topping him by nearly 100 points apiece in the slash line. He trails in home runs and RBI, but the rest of his case sure looks overwhelming enough for us to declare that Judge is the better player. 

If we wanted to dig in on the value component in terms of wins, the Yankees are sitting in playoff position and it's easy to see that they wouldn't be without Judge. What would the offense look like all season without him? No one else on the Yankees has more than 21 homers; Judge has 38. No one else has more than 68 RBI; Judge has 88. No one else has scored more than 65 runs; Judge has crossed the plate an AL-best 94 times. Simply put, he's doing it all.

The argument for Raleigh

While the Yankees are in playoff position, they have turned a seven-game lead in the AL East into a six-game deficit and fallen all the way to third place behind the Blue Jays and Red Sox. They've gone 22-31 since June 12. 

Meanwhile, the Mariners have now tied the Astros for first place in the AL West. Coincidentally, they started playing great baseball at exactly the point the Yankees turned bad. Since that June 12 spot, the Mariners have the best record in the American League at 34-19.

Raleigh has carried the Mariners' offense for stretches much like Judge has carried the Yankees. He has 45 homers while no other Mariners player has more than 23. He's driven home 98 runs while Julio Rodríguez's 65 are second. He leads the team in runs scored. 

Now, keep in mind that Raleigh plays the most demanding position on the field. There's been much focus on the catcher home run record being very likely to fall to Raleigh (Salvador Perez hit 48, a number Raleigh is very likely to crush). Less discussed, because it'll be much tougher to get there, is the possibility he takes the catcher RBI record. That is 148 from the great Johnny Bench in 1970. Raleigh is on pace for 132 RBI and that would be the fourth-most ever from a catcher behind Bench, Roy Campanella (142 in 1953) and Bill Dickey (133 in 1937). 

On top of that, Raleigh plays his home games in the most extreme pitcher's park in the majors while Yankee Stadium is a top-three home run park (yes, even for right-handed hitters). 

Let's say that the Yankees fall out of the playoffs while Judge's rate stats come down a bit and that Raleigh tops 55 home runs with around 130 RBI and the Mariners win the AL West. Would an element of voter fatigue also conspire against Judge? That is, does some of the voting body look for reasons to go away from Judge, even subconsciously, after he won two of the last three MVPs? 

I still think Judge is likely to hold on, but the team performances here are shifting things into a spot where Raleigh might be able to take advantage and sneak in. We'll continue to monitor.