2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, date: Surprising picks via top horse racing expert

The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, and the field is stacked with elite talent. Renegade goes off as the 4-1 morning-line favorite in the Kentucky Derby 2026 odds as he looks to secure a third Kentucky Derby victory for trainer Todd Pletcher. Renegade jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., a two-time winner at the Belmont Stakes, will be seeking his first victory in the Run for the Roses. Further Ado and Commandment are right behind Renegade at 6-1 odds, and Chief Wallabee (8-1) and The Puma (10-1) round out the top five contenders to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets, double what's available to the general public:

Saturday's post time in Louisville, Ky., is set for 6:57 p.m. ET. The road to becoming the 14th horse to win horse racing's Triple Crown starts at Churchill Downs, and the massive field is looking to become the first since Justify (2018) to accomplish the feat. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, you'll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, Yu gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young's win in the Saudi Cup, Journalism's win in the San Felipe Stakes, Sandman's win in the Arkansas Derby and Mindframe's win in the Churchill Downs Stakes. She also hit the exacta in the Kentucky Derby. In August she hit the Fierceness-Journalism exacta in the Pacific Classic, and in March 2026 she nailed the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could be up huge.

Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is fading Commandment, despite his status as one of the favorites at 6-1. Yu is fading the Florida Derby winner, as he has appeared to be slowing down a little, and the length of this race might not be ideal. Commandment's victory over The Puma at Gulfstream Park might have revealed an issue, as the added 1/16 of a mile from the Fountain of Youth led to a slowdown. The Kentucky Derby is an additional eighth of a mile, so Commandment could be a little gassed down the stretch in The Run for the Roses.

"I don't like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer," Yu tells SportsLine. Jockey Luis Saez has never finished in the top two in the Kentucky Derby but does have two Belmont victories. Saez crossed the finish line first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby but was disqualified for interference aboard Maximum Security. Trainer Brad Cox got his only Derby victory when Mandaloun was named the 2021 winner after Medina Spirit failed post-race testing. See which other 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on The Puma as a 10-1 longshot as the proven horse racing expert likes the Gustavo Delgado-trained colt's consistency. The Puma won the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and finished second at the Florida Derby three weeks later. Derby co-second favorite Commandment edged The Puma by a nose in the race at Gulfstream Park.

"He did everything but win the Florida Derby when Commandment nosed him out, but he has been super consistent," Yu told SportsLine. She also says "his best races put him right in the mix," and jockey Javier Castellano and Delgado teamed up to win the Derby in 2023 with Mage. Castellano also won the 2023 Belmont Stakes on Arcangelo and has won the Preakness twice. He is looking for a second victory in his 18th Run for the Roses. The Puma has finished in the top three in all four races since his maiden run in January. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing for the Kentucky Derby here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu's top pick is a horse who is "screaming for more ground." She also is high on a big double-digit longshot who will be the "forgotten horse." She is including this horse in her 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She's sharing which 2026 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2026 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out. 

2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions