2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds, predictions, favorites: Best bets by top expert who had $1,045 win last year

The 20 horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby have been given their post positions. In a race with such a massive field, where you start can be a key factor in where you ultimately finish. For example, Kentucky Derby 2026 favorite Renegade will begin in the No. 1 spot; it's been 40 years since a horse won from the rail. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what's available to the general public:

While Renegade is the favorite at 4-1 Kentucky Derby odds, four other horses are at 10-1 or lower. That includes Commandment (6-1) and Further Ado (6-1), who may take the role of morning line favorite by the time race day is here, May 2. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Gene Menez.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. 

Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. He hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. And earlier this year, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big, hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.

Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country. Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.

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Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Renegade (4-1), even though he's the morning-line favorite. Although Renegade has been on a roll, winning both the 2026 Arkansas Derby and the 2026 Sam F. Davis, he has proven not to be a good finishing horse. When in traffic near the end of a race, he has tended to fade.

He did that in December, when he finished second to Paladin at the 2025 Remsen at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, N.Y. He also lost late to Paladin at the MSW at the Belmont at Aqueduct in October. Paladin will miss the Derby due to injury. Despite Renegade's high regard, Menez sees value elsewhere. See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he's not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. Chief Wallabee has just three races in his career, and the finishes have descended, taking first in his maiden trip, second in February at the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, and third at the Grade 1 Florida Derby in March.

That said, Chief Wallabee comes in with a strong strength-of-competition rating. The only horses he's finished behind are Commandment (who won both graded races) and The Puma. Wallabee actually bested The Puma in his first race, and the Chief's Speed ratings in all three events have been contender-worthy. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the "best value in the race." Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds