The Bills offense is primed for a 2025 Fantasy Football breakout with Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman emerging
Josh Allen and James Cook are the studs you know, but there's more to unpack in this Bills offense
By
Dave Richard
•
7 min read
While there are literally no questions about whether or not Josh Allen is a quality quarterback in Fantasy Football, there are some about who he plays with on the Bills.
Last year, the only other Bills player who posted great stats consistently was James Cook. Khalil Shakir was okay, Dalton Kincaid disappointed while playing through injury, Keon Coleman's rookie season was also impacted by injury, Amari Cooper made like three impactful catches, the list goes on.
Allen played Superman week after week to help the Bills win 13 games and earn the NFL MVP award. His rushing numbers were ridiculous, but he finished 14th in the league in passing yards with 3,731, and eighth in passing touchdowns with 28, same as Aaron Rodgers.
Getting Allen over 4,000 yards passing or cutting down on his rush attempts aren't topics openly expressed by the Bills -- "we don't set expectations for our guys," offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. But if they are trying to improve the effectiveness of their passing game, it's working based on how the first-team offense operated in a recent joint practice against the Bears in suburban Chicago.
"Josh has been in a good spot, it's just his continual development this preseason with making sure he feels good about where he's at and with his receivers in particular," Bills coach Sean McDermott said before practice on what he wanted to see out of his quarterback.
The best connection Allen had on the day was with Coleman. In this practice, Coleman lined up across the formation and dealt with his fair share of double-teams, but not on every play. He and Allen struck gold on multiple touchdowns, first in a two-minute drill then a little later on when Coleman beat his coverage off the snap and extended his arms perfectly to reel in a deep ball from Allen just before Bears safety Jaquan Brisker could make a play.
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There's been an emphasis this summer on this specific hook-up, and it looks like it's been paying off. Brady hinted to CBS Sports that Coleman was like the typical rookie whose head was swimming in the playbook and his assignments, but after the season Coleman became "intentional" about refining his game.
Coleman has the ability to help the Bills in two ways: When he's double-covered it almost guarantees that someone else is running free, and against the kind of zone coverages the Bills are used to seeing, that should mean a good play for somebody. And when Coleman isn't doubled, he has the size to out-rebound anyone for the ball. The difference between last year and this year is that Coleman looked a smidge leaner and ran a lot crisper in practice.
"The biggest thing is just a comfort level in the system," Brady said when asked how Coleman has improved. "Your first year, you're just trying to make sure you know your job. And now being able to understand, well, now I got to do my job, but how's the defense playing? How's these DBs going to play me? It all goes together. There's so many different elements to it that we're just continuing to build on it.
"... I love where he's at. He's working his tail off, and I'm excited for the year to come."
It's entirely possible that we're on the brink of a breakout season from Coleman, who had significantly higher catch rate without losing much on his explosive play rate or yards per catch against zone coverage last year. He's an easy bet to take at his Round 10 average draft position, but Round 7 or 8 aren't crazy spots to take him.
Another sight for sore eyes during the joint practice was Kincaid, who was drafted with lofty expectations last year but suffered multiple knee injuries including a PCL sprain.
Kincaid scored a long touchdown on the very first play of 7-on-7 drills against the Bears defense, then brought in a nice grab on a corner route from Allen good for about 15 yards in team drills. Two other targets were off from Allen, one of which on a play where Kincaid would have had a huge gain had the pass been accurate. There were no limitations on his athleticism as he routinely showed off his hops and quickness.
"I feel like there's no setbacks, he looks like Dalton Kincaid to me," Brady said. "I could call five plays out that are designed to him and if they cover him (or) double him, I hope Josh moves on and kind of goes with it."
The problem for defenses is if they key in on Kincaid, Coleman will get free. Then if they key in on Coleman, Kincaid will have a shot at some targets. It's the same problem every NFL defense faces against good offenses, except the Bills offense features a quarterback who can beat defenses with his legs.
The simple fact that Kincaid is healthy and available late in Fantasy drafts makes him exceptionally appealing. You could take him with a pick after Round 10 whether you need a tight end or not.
And if that's not enough, Palmer the newcomer is bringing a fresh set of hands to the offense. He made a few eyebrow-raising grabs in practice while also looking a little faster than he did last year.
"Josh, he's a very smart wide receiver," Brady said. "And the versatility is critical to me. I want a bunch of wideouts that can line up all over the field inside, outside and see what they can do. And then as we continue to figure out what we're going to do in the season, right now, let's throw it all at them."
It sounds like Palmer could be a key replacement for Khalil Shakir if his ankle injury lingers into September while also filling in as a No. 3 receiver. Remember his name when the bye weeks come.
But arguably the player on the Bills Fantasy managers grapple with the most is Cook. The running back scored 18 times last season -- 10 more than any other back in a single season since Allen took over the quarterback duties -- yet totaled 300 fewer total yards than the year prior. In 2024 he rushed one fewer carry per game and saw his efficiency slide in yards before contact per rush and explosive play rate. Had he scored 10 touchdowns instead of 18, Cook would have averaged 13.7 PPR points per game, which would have been good for 21st among running backs last year and tied for 19th per game in 2023, which was done by Cook himself.
The chief concern among Fantasy managers: Cook's playing time. Already on the wrong side of third downs because of Ty Johnson's skill-set for the role, Cook rarely played more than 60% of the snaps last year. Heck, he rarely played more than 55% of the first half-snaps in 2024. There were even a couple of close games where the Bills didn't even have him in on much more than half of their red-zone snaps.
"Some of it is a week-to-week thing, some of it is what we have in the game plan," Brady said in reaction to those exact stats. "We do have three (RBs) and keeping them fresh (is crucial). ... I feel like [Cook] can play on all three downs. We're just fortunate with where we're at right now. We have a couple guys and throughout a long season, the biggest thing is we obviously got to win. So to me, that's kind of the best thing for us, we've got guys that, when they're in there, it's juicing and there's no wearing down as the game kind of goes.
"But we know we're way better with Jimbo on the field. I'm glad he's gonna be here for the next few years."
Drafting Cook would have been easy to avoid had his holdout extended into August, but that didn't happen. Frankly, it's harder to pass on Cook after watching him practice. He was as fast as ever while racing down the sideline into the end zone in drills against the Bears and displayed his typical patience and physicality on other runs.
The nice thing about Cook is that the Bills gave him red-zone opportunities last year and he crushed, scoring 12 of his 18 tuddies from inside the 10-yard line. Only Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson had more from close range. He's done nothing to lose those opportunities while also having the upside to regain his rushing efficiency from 2023. And he's in one of the best offenses in football with one of the brightest playcallers in Brady. That's what keeps him in the Round 3 range.
In total, Buffalo's offense might be considered stronger because their younger pass-catchers are more experienced and healthier, their veteran addition will help move the chains, and their star rusher is back with ample time to prep for the season. That combined with Superman at quarterback (who is in contention to be the first QB taken off the board), makes them an offense with a lot of weapons for a defense to deal with.
"They're a little bit like chess pieces," Brady said with a smile, "but our quarterback's confident with whoever's out there that they're going make the play."
