Fast-rising Patriots rookie TreVeyon Henderson may have to fight to be a must-start Fantasy RB

FOXBOROUGH, Ma. -- Patriots rookie TreVeyon Henderson didn't have the easiest day at the office during a joint practice with the Commanders this week.

He had a pass from backup quarterback Josh Dobbs go over his head on a check-down. He had another pass from Dobbs bounce off his hands and chest when he went over the middle of the field. During a 7-on-7 drill, Henderson had a step on his coverage on a wheel route, and Pats starting quarterback Drake Maye threw a dime to the back right pylon that Henderson tracked perfectly over his shoulder ... then dropped it.

And if that wasn't bad enough, Henderson later found himself at the bottom of a brawl between the two teams after Henderson pancaked an unnamed Commanders defender (not Von Miller).

Fortunately, Henderson also did a lot of good things. Really good things. The kinds of things he did at Ohio State, and the kinds of things the Patriots really need help with.

His speed was substantially better than any other Patriots running back, especially in terms of acceleration on runs to the edges or after the catch. His cuts, which were already on display from practices against his own team, were evident against Washington. His route running was good, getting open on a middle-of-field hitch route in red zone 7-on-7 drills for a touchdown from Maye. His hands obviously could have been better, but the buzz of training camp has been that Henderson's proven able to make contributions in the passing game, so a few drops shouldn't be a major issue.

"He seems to be a quick learner, and if there's something that happens in protection, he rarely makes the same mistake twice," Vrabel crowed about Henderson. "... You see him playing with effort when he doesn't have the ball in his hand, and he's been able to do some things in the run game and learns quickly to be able to move him around in different positions offensively."

It all suggests that Henderson is on a trajectory to help the Patriots this season, thanks to his speed, hands, agility, and a feisty pass-pro mindset will get him on the field more than a typical rookie running back might.

The concern is that he won't be New England's only running back. It's unquestionably the biggest thing holding him back from being one of the most popular rookies in Fantasy drafts. 

Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson both rotated in at running back with Henderson -- and not just with the starters. All three backs worked against the Commanders with the second-string offense, too. And while Gibson looked like his old self, Stevenson actually ran hard, took a lot of runs between the tackles, held the ball high and tight like a running back should, and flashed a nice combination of power and speed on several runs.

"I feel like we all could do it all," Gibson said with a smile after practice. "We can all run the ball, we can all catch, we can all pass protect. We've got little things that we do differently, but (we're) a backfield that can do it all."

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' track record of using multiple RBs is pretty consistent. Only three times in his 17 full seasons as a playcaller has a running back averaged 20-plus touches per game, and only 10 times has a back averaged 15-plus touches. Fantasy point production is almost a mirror image: five times in 17 years has a running back averaged at least 15 PPR points under McDaniels, and only 10 times has a back averaged 13-plus PPR points.

That's a big problem. There's more.

New England has an offensive line with two rookies starting on the left side and a veteran center whose game declined last year and is in need of a bounce-back season. There were plays where they seemed overwhelmed against Washington. And the depth behind the entire offensive line is unproven and thus concerning. That could be to the detriment of all running backs involved.

Never mind the fact that backs with Henderson's build (5-foot-10, 202 pounds) almost never averaged a high amount of touches under McDaniels. Knowshon Moreno was arguably the only exception, and even he had nearly 20 pounds on Henderson. This could be especially a problem on carries inside the 5-yard line; Henderson had seven such carries over his last three years at Ohio State.

And never mind the fact that Maye is known for his absurd athleticism and mobility. At one point in the joint practice against the Commanders, he took in a short-yardage touchdown with his legs. That kind of stuff will absolutely happen in-season.

Nothing from the joint practice, and nothing in McDaniels' history as a playcaller, suggests Henderson will overcome all of these things. True, Stevenson could fumble his way out of a job, but he's had that problem for years, and he got a sizable contract extension last June. Even if that were to happen, Gibson could be the one sharing with Henderson.

Henderson is already making some outstanding plays, and he probably will as soon as Week 1, for the Patriots. It's the quantity of them that should be on the minds of prospective Fantasy drafters.

Anyone currently drafting Henderson anytime before very late Round 4 in redraft leagues is taking on some risk. But that's where you should expect him to go, if not higher -- multiple people in every draft will value him because of his traits without considering any flaws, even if many of those flaws are team-related. While a top-50 pick seems way too rich, especially in non-PPR, anything closer to 60th should be deemed as fair and anything later is a gift.

The story is different in Dynasty leagues. Sort of. The long-term argument for Henderson is that he winds up being the next Shane Vereen, James White, or Dion Lewis. Those guys were great in McDaniels' offense, but only once did each of them average more than 14 PPR points in a season, thanks to a ridiculous seven-plus targets per game for each of them during their golden years. All three played many years in the league. It's tough to take Henderson early in rookie-only drafts if that's the expected return, though I suppose it would be much easier if you expect him to have seven targets each week.

If you think Henderson can excel on limited touches, or if you think McDaniels will suddenly change gears as a playcaller and lean on a sub-215-pound back for the first time, then consider taking Henderson before consensus. Otherwise, understand that he will share reps, just as he did against the Commanders in practice, and while he does some great things, he'll make some mistakes too, just as he did against the Commanders in practice.

Target him as close to 55th overall as you can.