Fantasy Football expert vs. NFL prop odds: Eight QBs projected to smash over/unders in betting market

As sports betting coverage and information becomes ubiquitous in the Fantasy Football world, it is interesting to compare my projections to where the season-long prop market currently sits. One thing you will notice right away is that the props are universally lower. That is because I generally project for 17 games then adjust for injury risk in my rankings, while injury risk and the potential of getting benched is baked into the prop market.

Every quarterback that I have a projection and a prop for has a lower yardage prop than my projection. Almost every touchdown prop is considerably lower as well, thought Baker Mayfield and J.J. McCarthy's numbers are exactly the same. That makes them two of the most appealing Unders at quarterback based on my projections.

There are eight quarterbacks that I project to throw for at least 750 more yards than their current prop at FanDuel. There are six quarterbacks who I project to throw for at least five more touchdowns than their props. Let's start with the QBs who fall in both categories.

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

Heath's yardage projection: 4,575
FanDuel yardage prop: 3,875.5
Heath's pass TD projection: 33.6
FanDuel pass TD prop: 26.5

There are going to be two common themes as you go through this list: injury risks and guys who might get benched. Prescott obviously isn't getting benched but he did miss nine games last year, five games in 2022, and 11 games in 2020. Does that make him an injury risk? I don't really think so. He has played at least 16 games in every other season. To a certain degree, all prop bets are bets on a guy staying healthy. The Cowboys offensive line may not be elite anymore, but it is still above average at least. Prescott doesn't run like he used so shouldn't take too many unnecessary hits. His his last three healthy seasons he has averaged 4,622 yards and 34 touchdowns through the air.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit both Overs: 14.5

Justin Fields, QB, Jets

Heath's yardage projection: 3,491
FanDuel yardage prop: 2600.5
Heath's pass TD projection: 20
FanDuel pass TD prop: 14.5

It seems like a lot more people than me think Fields has a chance to get benched. Tyrod Taylor is not Russell Wilson. I cannot imagine it. The toe injury in camp may have altered this number, but Fields is fine now. In six games as a starter last year he was on pace for 3,133 passing yards and 14 passing touchdowns. In his last 17 games he has produced 3,241 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. His 17-game pace as a starter with the Bears was for 2,954 yards and 17.9 TDs. He is more of an injury risk than Prescott, but not by much.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit both Overs: 13

Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks

Heath's yardage projection: 4,181
FanDuel yardage prop: 3,400.5
Heath's pass TD projection: 26.2
FanDuel pass TD prop: 20.5

This is probably the least relevant Fantasy QB I included, but there is a big gap here. I believe it is because of Jalen Milroe, but I just don't think him taking over is very realistic. Milroe has a ton of upside, but Seattle is unlikely to fall out of contention early and Milroe is unlikely to look so polished that he outright takes the job. I am projecting significant regression from last year when Darnold threw 35 touchdown passes for the Vikings. One thing I would say is that if you think the props are more accurate than my projections you may want to think really hard about how high you want to rank Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit both Overs: 14

Now let's look at other prominent player props my projections far exceed in one category.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles

Heath's yardage projection: 3,941
FanDuel yardage prop: 3200.5

Hurts introduces another risk in this process -- that his team is so good he doesn't have to throw, or play Week 18. Last year, on only 24 pass attempts per game, he threw for 2,903 yards in 15 games. He threw for more than 3,700 yards each of the two prior years. He has started at least 15 games for four straight years and needs less than that if my per game projections are accurate. Based on an offensive coordinator change, what the Eagles have said this offseason, and the fact that the Eagles may take a small step back defensively, I expect more pass attempts in 2025 and a career high in passing yards for Hurts.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit yardage Over: 14

Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders

Heath's yardage projection: 4,265
FanDuel yardage prop: 3,450.5

I project Daniels to throw for nearly 700 more yards than he did as a rookie. His prop is set 118 yards lower than his rookie total. One missed game could do that if his pace stays the same, right? Well, not really -- he only played 10 snaps in Week 7 and only threw for six yards in that game. He also sat out half of Week 18 against the Cowboys. In his final 17 complete games including the playoffs, Daniels threw for 4,162 yards. My projection doesn't look like near as big a leap now, does it?

Games needed at my per game projections to hit yardage over: 14

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins

Heath's yardage projection: 4,440
FanDuel yardage prop: 3,500.5

This should be no surprise at all. Tagovailoa is perceived as one of the biggest injury risks in the NFL. He's missed 10 games in the past three seasons. Of course, in one of those seasons he topped this prop in just 13 games. And two years ago he played all 17 games and threw for 4,624 yards. This may be more of a reminder that if you are late in the draft and he is still available, he is a great pick if only because he will likely beat ADP when he is healthy and you can stream when he isn't. 

Games needed at my per game projections to hit yardage Over: 13.5

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers

Heath's pass TD projection: 30
FanDuel pass TD prop: 24.5

It didn't take long for people to start doubting Purdy again. He threw 31 touchdown passes on 444 attempts in 2023 and 20 on 455 last year. In seven full games as a rookie he threw 16 touchdown passes. Unless Purdy gets hurt, I would be shocked if he is below 25 pass touchdowns.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit touchdown Over: 14.5

Bryce Young, QB, Panthers

Heath's pass TD projection: 24.8
FanDuel pass TD prop: 18.5

Young has only thrown 26 touchdown passes in 30 career games, so I understand this prop more than others. But he sure looked like a new man in his second starting stint of 2024, throwing 15 touchdown passes in his final 10 games. Add first round rookie Tetairoa McMillan and I am ready to buy into that late season surge. This Panthers defense could be one of the worst in the league, so Young should be throwing plenty.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit touchdown Over: 13