2025 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts: Dave Richard's must-draft list targets plenty of rookies
Find out why Dave Richard holds Omarion Hampton and other rookies in high regard
By
Dave Richard
•
11 min read
The first two rounds of a Fantasy draft are pretty cut-and-dried: Take the stud player who you believe in the most.
After that is when you might see picks deviate from Fantasy rankings. That separation will continue to grow as the draft rolls on. That's because not everyone drafts from the same rank list; some people only use the rank list in their online draft room!
This especially helps me since I don't mind going above consensus for any players I want on my Fantasy team. I have conviction in my picks, as everyone should if they take Fantasy Football seriously. I want to lean into that conviction and get the players I think will be difference-makers.
So instead of a breakouts column, I opted for a list of players I'm ahead of consensus on and therefore willing to draft a little higher than expected. The idea is to help you find similar players you can target in your drafts, be it ahead of consensus, at consensus, or even behind consensus. Basically, you'll know why I like these guys and why I'd take them if I were you.
Players are listed by the round I would take them in, not their ADP.
Round 3
CBS ADP: 38.3
I'd draft him because: He's an all-downs running back in an offense whose default mode is to hand off the football. Last year, the Chargers got away from it because they didn't have really great options at running back, plus they had Justin Herbert. They dedicated a lot of capital to the position, none bigger than the first-round pick they spent on Hampton, who by all accounts has looked awesome. You can freak out about Najee Harris if you want, but he's rarely been an efficient back, and there's no guarantee he'll take a big cut of Hampton's workload, especially since he missed all of training camp with an eye injury. Hampton has a chance at over 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns -- the numbers it takes to be a top-12 Fantasy RB.
I'd take him as soon as: 24th overall in PPR, 21st in non-PPR, but you can find him in early Round 3 consistently.
CBS ADP: 37.2
I'd draft him because: He's still a beast. Evans completely worked the Titans secondary in a joint practice and has his timing set with Baker Mayfield already. Slow recovery for Chris Godwin and a new injury for Jalen McMillan will only further push targets Evans' way. Plus, it sounds like the team is really behind Josh Grizzard as their new playcaller; last year, he designed a bunch of their third-down plays, so it's not exactly a new face calling plays. Plus, Grizzard is smart enough to know that Evans' dominance in the red zone will be easy to lean on. This isn't much of a reach because he's going toward the end of Round 3, but I'd be OK with him as a top-30 pick overall.
I'd take him as soon as: 30th overall
Round 4
CBS ADP: 68.2
I'd draft him because: He's continuing to ascend as a receiver, and if he gets any uptick in targets, he could really pay off huge. Last year, Williams was second among qualifying receivers in yards per catch, fourth in yards per target, fifth in yards after catch per reception, and 10th in explosive catch rate. Following midseason injuries, Williams began to see more consistent looks from Jared Goff and averaged 6.8 targets and 15.3 PPR points in his final nine. That's where I'd expect him to settle this year, but his explosive skill set does offer upside for more.
I'd take him as soon as: 46th overall, but you can find him in Round 5 consistently
Round 5
CBS ADP: 63.8 and rising
I'd draft him because: He was already the better back in Tennessee even when Tyjae Spears was practicing, but with Spears hampered by a high-ankle sprain and out for the first four games of the season, Pollard has a chance to hog high-value touches now and potentially carry that role deep into the year. I think it's crucial for Pollard to handle a sizable workload: Last year, he had 15-plus touches in 11 games and averaged 14.8 PPR points in those games. Over his past two seasons (23 games), when he's had 15 or more touches, he's had 15 outings with 15-plus PPR points. That's a lot of 15s to digest, but that exact number should be the expectation for him from week to week now that there isn't a major threat to his touches. It only helps his cause that the Titans offensive line has quietly improved and the team's quarterback situation has not-so-quietly been addressed.
I'd take him as soon as: 57th overall, which is right about where we should start seeing him go
CBS ADP: 80.9
I'd draft him because: He was already the 49ers' most explosive receiver and most polished route-runner, but now he's also their healthiest heading into the year. There will come a time when Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk return, but by then, it might already be too late for either of them to wrestle targets away from Pearsall. Please note: The 49ers are not known for feeding their wideouts heavy target volume, so expect something in the range of seven targets per game once everyone is healthy. In three games late last season when Pearsall was a regular part of the offense, he averaged a sick 18.4 PPR points on 7.3 targets.
I'd take him as soon as: 59th overall, but you can find him in Round 6 consistently
Round 6
CBS ADP: 88.4
I'd draft him because: His transition from Ohio State to the NFL has been pretty seamless. From the jump, Egbuka was lauded for his refined route-running and outstanding hands, but what wasn't certain was where he'd line up with the Bucs. Egbuka has been working as the team's outside receiver, a role he didn't play in college but did play in high school, and one he looked completely comfortable in this summer. Chris Godwin's return seems likely within the first month, but his role and effectiveness is to be determined. In fact, Egbuka could impact Godwin's role and touches if he gets off to a good start. His timing with Baker Mayfield has also been a big plus in camp.
I'd take him as soon as: 61st overall
Round 7
CBS ADP: 118.3
I'd draft him because: He seems poised to be the Bills' top-target getter and has taken strides to be a better receiver in his second season. Buffalo's M.O. since Joe Brady took over playcalling has been to run the ball, but it's been in reaction to defenses playing heavy zone coverage against them. Coleman's refined skill-set should help him thrive against zone coverage, which he was already better at than versus man coverage last year. I'm very aggressively adding Coleman to every roster I can.
I'd take him as soon as: 68th overall, but you can find him in Round 8 consistently
Round 8
CBS ADP: 99.2 and rising
I'd draft him because: His catch radius, size/speed combination, and after-catch ability have all translated to the NFL from his Penn State days. Not that he's a Brock Bowers clone, but Warren is unquestionably a playmaker who can work either as a short-area option or as a sneaky downfield target who will devour one-on-one matchups. What we didn't see in the preseason was Warren's versatility -- he can line up as a running back or even as a Wildcat quarterback, concepts that might come into play when the Colts get near the red zone. It's actually a good thing for him that Daniel Jones will be the Colts quarterback because Jones' tendency when pressured is to throw the ball to whoever is closest, and Warren figures to be that guy. But I ultimately believe Warren will be a huge contributor to the Colts offense this year.
I'd take him as soon as: 82nd overall, but you can find him in Round 8 consistently
CBS ADP: 98.3
I'd draft him because: The Vikings seemed to add him because of his youth, strength, and ability to thrive in multiple run schemes. Having a running back to take a lot of work off of Aaron Jones' plate, especially, makes sense since Jones turns 31 this season. Expect Mason to play a good amount every week, even when Jones is healthy, and potentially post ridiculous numbers in any games Jones misses with injury. He's among the best non-top 24 running backs you can get.
I'd take him as soon as: 85th overall, but you can find him in Round 8 consistently
Round 9
CBS ADP: 94
I'd draft him because: I think the disrespect is kinda out of control. Okay, fine, he'll play six games outdoors. And heck yes, it is a factor that his prized playcaller left for the rival Bears. But we're still talking about one of the better throwers in the league, surrounded by one of the better offensive lines in the league, passing to one of the most dangerous receiving corps in the league. Goff won't run for any stats, but I don't think his 2024 was flukish at all. He's a high-floor Fantasy quarterback who I'd take right in this spot.
I'd take him at: 92nd overall, this is a fair ADP for Goff -- if you get him later, you're stealing him
CBS ADP: 129.4
I'd draft him because: The Jets want to use multiple running backs, and as silly as this sounds, Allen has outplayed Breece Hall this preseason. It's a small sample size, and there's no question who the more explosive and versatile running back is, but if Allen is going to handle a role in the Jets run game, it figures to be one that includes short-yardage carries. I wouldn't spend a top-90 pick on him, but there's obvious upside if the Jets move on from Hall at any point during the year, or if Allen's outplaying of Hall continues into the season.
I'd take him as soon as: 97th overall, but you can find him in late Round 9 consistently
CBS ADP: 144.0
I'd draft him because: His speedy, versatile talent figures to be too good to keep on the Jaguars bench all season. Tuten was the only Jaguars running back to impress in their joint practice, winning on edge runs against the Dolphins. He also looked solid in the preseason. There are legit concerns about him pass protecting, so he may not play on many obvious passing downs, but his electric skill-set is something the Jaguars figure to gravitate toward as the season goes on. Also of note: Liam Coen made Bucky Irving a star last year, Ray Davis a star at Kentucky in 2023, helped Cam Akers reach a modicum of his potential in 2022, and pushed Chris Rodriguez to his best college stats in 2021. The point is, Coen seems to have the touch when it comes to running backs, and he's the coach of the team that drafted Tuten.
I'd take him as soon as: 98th overall, but you can find him in Round 9 consistently
CBS ADP: 155.1
I'd draft him because: He has a real chance to lead the Browns run game to begin the year -- and potentially keep the gig for the whole season. Second-round pick Quinshon Judkins is unsigned as of late August and will need several weeks to get ramped up to play pro ball whenever he joins the team ... if he joins the team. That leaves Sampson with veteran Jerome Ford as the Browns' top two tailbacks. Ford was good in spurts last season but has consistently been better in passing situations, whereas Sampson flashed burst, acceleration, vision, and balance this preseason. Sampson turns 21 after the start of the season. When else could you take a young, fast running back who could be a factor in Week 1 with a pick after Round 12?! Answer: You shouldn't let him fall that far.
I'd take him as soon as: 104th overall, but you can find him in Round 10 consistently
Round 10
CBS ADP: 136.9
I'd draft him because: De'Von Achane's calf isn't promised to last 17 games (though if it does, whew, I'm glad I took him in Round 2), and Gordon looked really good not only in the preseason games but also in two practices I went to. He's physical, has some speed, has solid receiving ability, and seems to have a solid sense of the run scheme the Dolphins have. He's a change-up for them in that he's not a track star, but he should be able to bring some thunder that others on the Miami roster just don't have. It's a cheap chance to get a potential Fantasy starter.
I'd take him as soon as: 106th overall, but you can find him in Round 10 consistently
CBS ADP: 129.4
I'd draft him because: He's one of a select few breakout quarterbacks who actually have the potential to thrive. Maye's rushing is evident, and that's certainly a draw. But in 202,4, he averaged 18.6 Fantasy points per game in his last 11 starts, throwing to inferior receivers in a poorly schemed offense behind a bad offensive line. This year, his receiving corps is improved, his new playcaller is one of the best in the last 20 years in Josh McDaniels, and the offensive line has been replenished to the point where they should be decent. His arm has looked live in practice and the preseason. He also has a great early-season start against the Raiders and Dolphins defenses.
I'd take him as soon as: 118th overall
