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USATSI

Mid-August isn't exactly early in terms of Fantasy Football draft prep, but as far as ADP goes, there are still plenty of changes to come. The vast majority of drafts happen the final two weeks before the NFL season, so nothing is set in stone yet. At the same time, there is a sense in which ADP begets ADP. Drafters see where a player is normally taken and assume the player should be taken around that pick. If that happens with Alvin Kamara, I am afraid drafters will be making a mistake.

In fairness to Kamara, I should acknowledge he was RB5 per game last year, averaging 18.9 PPR FPPG. The year before that, he finished as RB3 and averaged 17.9 PPR FPPG. He is currently being drafted as RB14. That seems like a good deal, right? We don't really agree. I have Kamara at RB21, worth a pick in Round 5. Jamey has him at RB18, worth a Round 4 pick. While Dave does have him in Round 3 as RB14, he's still a few spots behind Kamara's ADP of 29.7. The problem for Kamara isn't the per-game average of the past two years; it is everything else.

First and foremost, Kamara is a 30-year-old running back. Despite what Derrick Henry did last year, Age 30 is still a glaring red flag for this position. While some will argue that Kamara's lack of touches means he's a fresh 30, the fact that he has missed at least three games in three of the past four seasons makes it hard to argue that he is a durable pick. He also hasn't been nearly as efficient the second half of his career (3.9 yards per rush/6.1 yards per target) as he was in the first half (5.0/6.9). So we have a 30-year-old back who has only played 15 games once in the past four years and has shown statistical signs of decline. Those are the obvious risks around Kamara.

Another that may be obvious is the direction the Saints are moving. They have arguably the worst quarterback room in the NFL with rookie Tyler Shough battling Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for the Week 1 starting job. Their look-ahead game lines imply 19.2 points per game, the second-lowest mark in the league. Their offensive line projects as average at best, below average by most. This is a bad offense, anyway you look at it. Potentially worse than the unit that finished 24th in scoring last year.

The way Kamara made up for being on a bad offense last year was with volume. He averaged 21.2 touches per game. Do you really want to bet on him coming anywhere close to that mark at 30 years old with a new coaching staff? Maybe more accurately, the key to Kamara's PPR production has always been receptions. He has been above four receptions per game all but two years of his career. That may be the hidden risk that people are not accounting for yet.

New Head Coach Kellen Moore has an extensive history as an offensive play caller. It tells an interesting story about the role of running backs as pass catchers. Moore's first season as an Offensive Coordinator came with the Cowboys in 2019. Ezekiel Elliott averaged 3.4 catches per game that year. The year before, he averaged 5.1 catches per game. Elliott stayed right around three catches per game while Moore was in Dallas. In 2023, Moore went to the Chargers, and Austin Ekeler averaged 3.6 catches per game that year. The year before, Ekeler caught 6.3 passes per game at the end of a four-year stretch where he averaged 5.5 catches per game. Last year, Moore was in Philadelphia, where Saquon Barkley averaged a career-low 2.1 catches per game. You get the picture.

Elliott, Ekeler, and Barkley all saw significant decreases in their work in the passing game when Moore arrived. Combined, the trio saw a 36% year-over-year decrease in receptions per game in the first year with Moore. If that happens with Kamara, he would average a career-low 3.1 receptions per game in 2025, and he would have very little chance of returning value at his Round 3 ADP based on the offensive environment around him.

None of these are guarantees. That is the great thing about our game. Kamara could buck the aging curve, like Henry did last year. His efficiency could rebound. The Saints offense could be just below average instead of atrocious. Kamara could be Moore's most involved pass-catching running back ever. But that is a lot of "coulds" for an ADP this high. Whether you are in or out on Kamara in Round 3, hopefully now you understand why, as a consensus, we can't recommend drafting him before Round 4, and why I am out on Kamara at cost altogether.