When you go about setting your lineup for Monday's nine-game slate, you will have one big question you need to answer. Before you start looking for bargains and looking up over/unders, you need to figure out what to do with DeMarcus Cousins. More than any other player, he will determine the way tonight goes.
Cousins enters tonight as arguably the best player in Fantasy since the start of January. He is taking on an obscene usage rate of 37.8 percent, and scoring efficiently with massive rebounding and defensive numbers. Over the past 10 games, Cousins is averaging 12.8 rebounds and 2.7 combined blocks and steals per game and racking up 52.1 Fantasy points per contest, despite a sky-high turnover rate.
So, he's an obvious play against a bad Milwaukee defense, right? The Bucks rank dead last in the league in defensive rebounding percentage, and allow a higher-than-average amount of Fantasy points to both centers and power forwards. Cousins shouldn't have much trouble dominating this matchup -- if he plays.
That is the big question here. Cousins injured his ankle this weekend and enters tonight questionable as a result of the injury. Complicating matters is the fact that the Kings are the last game of the night, with tipoff set for 10 p.m. ET, a full hour after the next latest game. Not only is Cousins an injury question mark for tonight, but we might not know his availability until well after lineup locks.
You pretty much can't play Cousins in cash games under any circumstances unless we hear he will play before lock. However, that doesn't mean he is out of bounds for tournament play. You just have to acknowledge the risk inherent and plan accordingly.
If Cousins is indeed a true game-time decision, those of you playing 10 lineups may want to stick him in one or two of them. The risk surrounding him will scare most people off, which means he is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick tonight; if he does play, you could have a l0w-owned stud to carry you to victory. No player has as much upside as Cousins right now -- he is just a week removed from a 75-point game.
However, if you are going to have exposure to Cousins, you also need to make sure you mitigate the risk. This is a good matchup for the Kings overall, so make sure some of your non-Cousins lineups have guys like Rajon Rondo, Rudy Gay, Omri Casspi, Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein, all of whom will have to help pick up the slack if Cousins doesn't play.
Cousins status is going to be a headache for most owners tonight, but if you're willing to take the risk, playing off that uncertainty could pay huge dividends.
Injury Report
C DeMarcus Cousins $11,100 SAC vs. MIL (Ankle) - Questionable
C Kosta Koufos $3,500 would see more minutes
C Marc Gasol $8,300 MEM @ NOR (Knee) - Questionable
PF Ryan Hollins $3,500 would see more minutes
SG Tyreke Evans $6,700 NOR vs. MEM (Knee) - Questionable
SG Bryce Dejean-Jones $3,500 would see more minutes
PF Ersan Ilyasova $5,400 DET @ BKN (Thigh) - Questionable
SF Stanley Johnson $4,100 would see more minutes
C Ian Mahinmi $5,000 IND vs. CLE (Back) - Questionable
PF Myles Turner $5,200 would see more minutes
SG Ben McLemore $3,800 SAC vs. MIL (Wrist) - Questionable
SG Marco Belinelli $3,500 would see more minutes
PG Cameron Payne $3,500 OKC vs. WAS (Concussion) - Questionable
SG Dion Waiters $3,900 would see more minutes
Monday's Slate
Milwaukee @ Sacramento
Fantasy Points Allowed: 415.4
It's rare that we only have one game over 400 projected Fantasy points allowed, which makes the uncertainty surrounding Boogie all the more concerning. This game just doesn't feel like it possesses a good cash game play outside of Khris Middleton, but it's full of great tournament options. More specifically, I'd feel comfortable using any Bucks starter in a tournament, especially Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Parker.
Detroit @ Brooklyn
Fantasy Points Allowed: 398.7
The center matchup between Brook Lopez and Andre Drummond should be a spectacular one. It also scares me because the strength of each raises concerns for the other. I'd lean towards Drummond as the better tournament play. Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson are both fine options at SF, a position Brooklyn has struggled against this year.
Dallas @ Atlanta
Fantasy Points Allowed: 397.8
I love the matchups in this game for both Zaza Pachulia and Paul Millsap, especially in cash games. Pachulia has reached 4.5x value in 1 of his last 14 full games and the Hawks rank 27th in the NBA against opposing centers. Millsap has point potential against a Mavericks team that isn't much better against power forwards.
Toronto @ Denver
Fantasy Points Allowed: 395.6
This could easily be the most stackable game that no one stacks. In other words, it's full of great tournament plays. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the obvious high upside plays, but guys like Bismack Biyombo, Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson could explode for 6-7x value against a good matchup. On the Nuggets side, Will Barton is coming off a disastrous game, but at less than $6,000 he's very tempting.
Washington @ Oklahoma City
Fantasy Points Allowed: 394.3
If the game above is the sneaky stack, this would be the obvious one. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are both great cash plays, but I wouldn't combine them unless it's a tournament and you play some Wizards. John Wall is the healthiest and most obvious play, but there's a chance Bradley Beal breaks out if he gets 30 minutes.
Memphis @ New Orleans
Fantasy Points Allowed: 394.1
Anthony Davis is almost below $10,000. Even against a bad matchup, I don't see how you fade him in tournaments.
Chicago @ Utah
Fantasy Points Allowed: 390.2
The Bulls have the much better players but this is a gross matchup. I'm fading Pau Gasol, Jimmy Butler and Gordon Hayward. Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are both possibilities against a solid matchup.
Cleveland @ Pacers
Fantasy Points Allowed: 380.7
Lebron and Paul George are both fades for me, but I'm intrigued by Kyrie Irving at his reduced cost.
Orlando @ San Antonio
Fantasy Points Allowed: 378
Kawhi Leonard is the only players I'm seriously considering outside of ultra-contrarian plays.
Top Five
PG
1. Kyrie Irving $6,800 CLE @ IND
2. Russell Westbrook $10,900 OKC vs. WAS
3. Jeff Teague $5,600 ATL vs. DAL
4. John Wall $9,800 WAS @ OKC
5. Rajon Rondo $8,600 SAC vs. MIL
SG
1. Khris Middleton $7,300 MIL @ SAC
2. DeMar DeRozan $8,200 TOR @ DEN
3. Dion Waiters $3,900 OKC vs. WAS
4. J.R. Smith $4,900 CLE @ IND
5. Will Barton $5,800 DEN vs. TOR
SF
1. Kevin Durant $10,700 OKC vs. WAS
2. Kawhi Leonard $7,300 SA vs. ORL
3. Omri Casspi $5,200 SAC vs. MIL
4. Rudy Gay $7,600 SAC vs. MIL
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo $7,500 MIL @ SAC
PF
1. Paul Millsap $8,400 ATL vs. DAL
2. Jabari Parker $5,200 MIL @ SAC
3. Anthony Davis $10,100 NO vs. MEM
4. Derrick Favors $7,200 UTA vs. CHI
5. Willie Cauley-Stein $4,100 SAC vs. MIL
C
1. Zaza Pachulia $6,300 DAL @ ATL
2. Andre Drummond $8,500 DET @ BKN
3. Rudy Gobert $7,200 UTA vs. CHI
4. Brook Lopez $8,800 BKN vs. DET
5. Greg Monroe $7,900 MIL @ SAC
Five Under $5,000
PG Jerryd Bayless $3,800 MIL @ SAC
SG Wesley Matthews $4,700 DAL @ ATL
SF Stanley Johnson $4,100 DET @ BKN
PF Tristan Thompson $4,700 CLE @ IND
C Bismack Biyombo $4,00 TOR @ DEN
