In just five weeks of action, Braves closer Craig Kimbrel already has allowed as many home runs as he did all of last year -- three -- the same number of blown saves he had in both seasons. It is especially discouraging that all three have come in his last five apperances.
Is it time to start worrying about Kimbrel, the consensus top closer in the game entering the season?
Kimbrel allowed a pair of home runs as he blew his third save of the season Tuesday, but there does not appear to be any physical issues underlying his stumble. Kimbrel hit 96 mph n eight of 11 fastballs Tuesday, and he is averaging 96.1 mph on his fastball for the season, so there is little reason to think he is struggling through an injury. He is still striking out 14.18 batters with just 2.03 walks per nine innings, but he has had some bad luck with home runs.
The only significant change in Kimbrel's line is he is allowing more flyballs to come off the bats of opposing hitters. Tuesday, he allowed two fly balls and two home runs, pushing his percentage of flyballs that have gone over the fence to 25 percent on the season. That number was just 9.7 last year and 5.3 the previous year, so we can probably assume this is just a small blip.
Long story short, there is nearly no reason for Fantasy owners to panic right now. The 24-year-old is still blowing batters away with filthy stuff and pinpoint control. One out of four flyballs will almost certainly not keep leaving the yard for him, so all signs still point to Kimbrel dominating from this point on. This is not a controversial opinion, but I would not expect Kimbrel to keep struggling.