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Shane Bieber will make his long-awaited debut Friday, and it's one of the most fascinating stories in baseball right now. There's a lot riding on Bieber's return, both for him and the Blue Jays.

The fact that he's going to be pitching for the Blue Jays is already fascinating enough – Bieber has never pitched for a team besides the Guardians since he was drafted in 2016, and the Blue Jays acquired him in the middle of his rehab assignment, giving up last year's second-round pick, Khal Stephen, to get him. It was a steep price for a pitcher who has made two starts at the major-league level since 2023 and who hasn't pitched a full, healthy season since 2022. 

But the Blue Jays needed to take a big swing with a rotation deep in quality arms but short on impact. They're betting Bieber can be that, and it's not entirely a bet based on blind faith, as Bieber had made four rehab starts before the trade. And, based on what we've seen from him as he works his way – somewhat fitfully, of course – back from last year's Tommy John surgery, Bieber very well could still be that difference-making kind of pitcher.

We'll start where we so often start with pitchers: Velocity. Bieber has made three starts at Triple-A in front of the Statcast system, and it looks like he's turned the clock back. In those three starts, Bieber is averaging 92.8 mph with his fastball, up nearly a full tick from his two starts in 2024 (when his velocity was already up) and higher than he has sat in any season since 2021. Bieber dealt with injuries that limited him to just 16 starts, but that was also the last season where he looked like a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm, as he put up a 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate, a rate that fell to 25.0% and then 20.1% in his subsequent two seasons. 

That isn't a guarantee Bieber will pitch like the Cy Young winner he once was, but it's worth remembering back to his brief cameo at the start of the 2024 season. Bieber built up some hype that spring when he flashed a bit more velocity, and it looked like he truly was all the way back when he struck out 20 in 12 innings across his two starts. Injuries prevented us from seeing whether he could truly turn back into a superstar ace, but there was plenty to be excited about, and again, he's throwing even harder now. 

Of course, you just have to look around at the likes of former aces Spencer Strider or Sandy Alcantara this season to know that nobody is a sure thing coming back from elbow surgery. Strider's stuff just hasn't gotten back to where it was pre-injury, but Alcantara's mostly looks right, and he has still struggled with his command en route to a bunch of walks and surprisingly loud contact. Bieber was always someone who got by more on pitchability and command than overwhelming stuff, so if his command isn't there, he might struggle even if his increased velocity sticks.

But here's where the risk comes in for the Blue Jays: If Bieber does look like himself for the final six weeks or so of the season, he's almost certainly going to turn down his $16 million player option for 2026 and hit free agency looking for a long-term deal. If he pitches like an ace and helps the Blue Jays get deep into the playoffs, it's probably a trade-off they would take. Still, it's interesting that the big swing the Blue Jays took at the deadline carries downside for them, even if it ends up working out well for them.

As for Bieber's Fantasy value, we're kind of in a wait-and-see moment. He's rostered in 83% of CBS Fantasy leagues, so if he's available in yours, go out and add him ahead of his debut. But don't count on him being a must-start pitcher just yet. Bieber is like found money for you as a mid-season waiver-wire pickup, so let him prove he can still be a difference maker before you get him in your lineup. I very much think he can be, but I'd like some confirmation first before I take the risk of putting him in my lineup.

Before we get to what you need to know from Monday's action around the majors, let's take a quick look at two other pitchers coming back from elbow injuries in the next week or so: 

Bryce Miller set to start Tuesday against the Phillies

Miller has been pitching through elbow soreness for much of the season, and offseason surgery to remove bone spurs in the back of his pitching elbow seems inevitable. And it's been disastrous when he's tried to pitch through it so far, as he has a 5.73 ERA in 10 starts, a far cry from his 2.94 mark during a breakout 2024 season. And Miller's rehab assignment hasn't made him look fixed, either, with a 4.05 ERA in three starts. However, if you look past the surface level ERA, you'll find a lot to like with Miller – 15 strikeouts to just three walks in 13.1 innings with a 0.75 WHIP, and most importantly, a big jump in velocity. Miller has averaged 96.4 mph with his four-seamer at Triple-A, up from 94.5 earlier this season and even up significantly from his 95.2 mph average in 2024. That's a big deal for Miller, who has expanded his arsenal but still leaned heavily on his fastballs last season. That's no guarantee Miller will close out the season pitching like he did last season, but I'm hopeful for the first time since he initially began dealing with this injury. He's 77% rostered, and if you're in one of the leagues where Miller is available, I'm interested in adding him ahead of his debut just in case he takes off. 

Kyle Bradish will make his debut next week 

There isn't a lot of time for Bradish to get his legs under him, but man, I'm excited to watch him pitch again. It's been a while, but remember, Bradish had a breakout season in 2023, putting up a 2.83 ERA over 168.2 innings of work, and then looked like he was taking an even bigger leap in 2024, putting up a 2.75 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate in nearly 40 innings before ultimately needing Tommy John surgery. The velocity bump that fueled his short-lived breakout in 2024 is still intact in his minor-league rehab assignment, and he just struck out nine in five innings in his last start. Bradish is two months nearer to his surgery than Bieber is, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had a tougher time transitioning in his return to the majors. But I think his ceiling might be even higher, and I do think you should make adding him a priority in the 59% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he is still available, with his return to the rotation set for next week. 

Here's what else you need to know about from Monday's action around MLB: 

Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets

Jurickson Profar, OF, Braves (77%) – Usually when you see a player stall out in the high-70% roster rate range, it's because they have limited utility in points league, but that doesn't really apply here – Profar was the No. 5 outfielder in points leagues since his return from suspension even before his two-homer game Monday. All of a sudden, after his two homers Monday, Profar's season-long OPS (.826) is within spitting distance of what it was last season, and he's on pace for more homers and steals than last season if he played the same number of games. His underlying data doesn't quite back that up, though even that is starting to catch up, as he's up to a .361 xwOBA over his past 100 PA after a slow start, right in line with last season's .364 mark. Whatever gains players tend to get from PEDs tend to hang around, and it looks like Profar might be benefiting from that. 

Lenyn Sosa, 2B, White Sox (43%) – Another day, another big game for Sosa, who went 2 for 6 with a homer and four RBI Monday against the Braves. He is now hitting .280 with 13 homers and an OPS over .850 over his past 43 games. I didn't believe in this hot streak at the start, but Sosa might be legit – his average exit is up to 90.8 mph for the season and his pulled-air% is 20.7%, a very strong rate that should continue to help him maximize his solid power. He's an extremely aggressive swinger (third percentile chase rate), which could be exposed by pitchers at some point, but he kind of has that Yainer Diaz/Michael Harris thing, where he manages to make a lot of contact – and a lot of strong contact – despite poor swing decisions. He might be something more than just a hot-hand player.